In our final episode of our first edition of the Horn of Africa series (Part 4), I finish my discussion with Somali-American scholar, Guled Ahmed, on the role of the international community.
What can the international community do to support Somaliland recognition and what are the internal barriers holding Somaliland back?
Editor-in-Chief, Gus Anderson: Djibouti’s alignment with China is stark.
We know that Chinese and Russian vessels have a carte blanche by the Houthi militia in the Red Sea.
The alignment between China, Russia, Iran, and the Houthis is all interlinked. The change in ownership of Doraleh port from the Emiratis to the Chinese in 2017 was a watershed moment.
It is interesting to see that link between China-Russia-Iran-Houthis in addition to the Houthis and Al-Shabaab.
Question: As we see the outlines of President Trump’s 2025 Vision, U.S. decline across Africa especially in West Africa, and China’s ascendence on the continent; what would your advice be to the U.S., the GCC, and UK? Surely, it makes geopolitical and historical sense for the U.S., UK, and GCC to increase their role in Somaliland and push for independence?
Guled Ahmed: You know, Somaliland is fortunate enough that it has friends in the UK, U.S. Senate, and wider world.
Actually in the U.S. Senate right now, we have legislation going through the Senate in favour of Somaliland independence and we have many friends in the UK Parliament in favour of Somaliland independence.
Unfortunately in Somaliland, they have what I term ‘doormat diplomacy’. They welcome Somali and Turkish political representatives and ambassadors to Hargeisa.
I think this gives a different picture to the international community who perceive Somaliland politicians to not be so serious when it comes to action.
If you compare the current president, President Abdirahman Cirro, to President Muse Bihi Abdi; we see the difference as Abdi was far more aggressive on recognition. Cirro is new and allegiadly pro-union.
"Everytime the Somaliland government confirms the pro-union biases today; we see this with the Somaliland President visiting the World Government Summit in Dubai followed by the visit of the Türkiye delegation in Hargeisa with the Ankara Declaration."
Somaliland has to secure and invest a lot of lobbying efforts for independence.
The other factor, that is unknown by-and-large, is the economic ownership of Somaliland telecommunications and finance.
"The Islamists, Jama'at al-I'tisam, owns both sectors and do not want Somaliland independence. Jama'at al-I'tisam has influence in the current government and explains a great deal of the policy direction under the leadership."
Editor-in-Chief, Gus Anderson: Are these Islamists from Somalia?
Guled Ahmed: Islamists, from Somalia and also Somaliland. They control part of the economic part and have a large degree of influence.
The international community need to understand that part and incentivise the economic independence of Somaliland before moving to political independence and recognition.
"As you know, historically the AU did a study in 2005 which recognised the “unique case” of Somaliland. However, there was no push by the international community even though Somaliland holds a better case for independence than South Sudan or Kosovo even."
Legally, we see if Somalia and Somaliland went to a international court; it is a slam dunk.
The challenge is domestic, because the international community is ready. It is up to Somalilanders and Somaliland politicians to push the issue hard.
Editor-in-Chief, Gus Anderson: I guess we see that as we saw the President visit Dubai for the World Government Summit in Dubai before signing the Ankara Declaration with Türkiye days later. It seems very contradictory and Somaliland needs to choose its own lane otherwise the independence movement isn’t going to find ground and takeoff.
Final question, how can Somaliland be a buffer for security when you have Daesh, Houthis, and Al-Shabab in your backyard.
Question: How can Somalilanders continue to maintain stability whilst dealing with those threats in its immediate neigherbourhood?
Guled Ahmed: It is up to the international community. The community needs to take more aggressive steps, no matter what.
At the end of the day, if Somalia and China are pursuing a proxy war in eastern part of Somaliland, where Beijing is financing the militia, then Somaliland will fall under attack.
The community must step in to stabilise Somaliland even if Somaliland case achieves independence in a different form, such as Hong Kong.
With the escalating situation in Somalia, Somaliland, and Bab el-Mandeb; it is only time until the Houthis, Al-Shabab, or Daesh escalate in Somaliland. It will be a huge crisis in the next 5-10 years when you look across these actors and their expansion.
For instance, the Houthis control the livestock trade in Somaliland.
"Somalia gave the Houthis a connected Houthi trader, a Saudi national, connected to Djibouti, who has been rewarded a livestock export trade in Somaliland. Slowly the proxies are trying to capture Somaliland and destabilise it."
Biden’s policy on Somalia was strange; the ‘One Somalia policy’ failed. Attempts to reunite Somalia pushes ‘Greater Somali elitism‘, which officials like Democrat politician, Ilhan Omar, pushes in the U.S.
The international community must step up now.
Editor-in-Chief, Gus Anderson: Thank you Guled Ahmed. I think we have learnt a lot; Somalia must stop its war on Somaliland and the international community must recognise that Somaliland independence is the best way forward.
Keep up with Daily Euro Times for more updates!
Read and Listen to more of DET’s related pieces:
Unrecognised Independence: The Case for Somaliland (Part 1)
A New Protectorate: Türkiye in the Horn of Africa (Part 2)
Anything for a Dollar: Djibouti, Arms Smuggling, and Terrorism (Part 3)
