On 23 February, 2025, early elections to the Bundestag took place in Germany sending shockwaves across Europe as the political right make continental headway.
German Election Results
The conservative bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union led by Friedrich Merz won with 28.5% of the vote.
The far-right Alternative for Germany came in second with around 21% of the vote, doubling its support compared to the previous election.
The Social Democratic Party of Germany received around 16%, the party’s worst result since 1887.
The Greens won 11.6% of the vote, down slightly from the previous election, and the Left Party surprisingly returned to the Bundestag with 8.8%.
The victory of the CDU/CSU under Friedrich Merz means the conservatives are back in power. Merz has announced his intention to form a government by 20 April and has stressed the need to strengthen European unity and achieve independence from the United States, citing the supposed indifference of the American administration.
He has also promised to increase support for Ukraine and restore economic stability in Germany.
Popularity and Protest
The success of the AfD is causing concern both within the country and abroad. The rise in popularity of the far right is explained by voters’ dissatisfaction with the current migration policy and security issues.
However, other parties continue to isolate the AfD, refusing to enter into a coalition with it.
Economic Challenges
High energy costs and competition from China are putting pressure on the German economy. Merz promises to focus on restoring economic stability, but limited fiscal space and existing debt constraints could make it difficult to implement ambitious reforms.
Domestic policy will also require attention to migration and security issues. Merz has promised to tighten border controls and ensure national security, reflecting the mood of a part of the electorate worried about the current situation.
Global Reaction
The victory of the CDU/CSU and the strengthening of the AfD have caused a mixed reaction in EU circles.
Paris and Brussels supported the conservatives, but expressed concern about the rise of the far right.
Warsaw expects rapprochement with Berlin, especially on security issues.
On Trump, Merz insists on “greater independence for Europe”, which could complicate transatlantic relations.
Relations with China will remain pragmatic but restrained. With regard to Russia, the new cabinet will continue its hard line, strengthening support for Ukraine and sanctions policy.
The Future of Migration Policy
The new government promises to tighten migration policy. Merz is expected to tighten border controls, accelerate the deportation of illegal migrants, and reduce social benefits for refugees.
Changes in citizenship legislation, tightening of requirements for naturalisation, and the introduction of language and integration tests are possible.
These reforms are aimed at reducing the flow of migrants and adapting newcomers to German society, which may cause both support and protests within the country and abroad.
The elections in Germany have changed the political landscape, affecting domestic stability, migration policy, and international relations.
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