Somaliland

Mogadishu's two-day firefight over a contested presidential term tells Jubaland, Puntland and Somaliland that federal authority ends at the gun barrel.

A republic that has spent thirty five years waiting for a seat at the table is sending its president to Israel, an action that is forcing every capital in the Gulf to rethink how the Red Sea is organised.

Ethiopia is projecting power in the air and along the Nile as a sudden regional split forces Egypt to navigate an altered territory.

Britain’s state-backed bets on a Red Sea port are now dragging London into a genocidal war in Sudan and a high-stakes diplomatic collision with Saudi Arabia.

Saudi air strikes on Emirati cargo imply a total breakdown between the powers, but theatre hides a cold logic where both states gain from a segmented Yemen.