The Pentagon has confirmed the end of two decades of American military involvement in Iraq, and Italy completed the withdrawal of its last troops a day earlier. Rome had recalled most of its personnel in March after an airstrike hit the Erbil base, and Turkey has promised a gradual exit from the Bashiqa base. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi hails the departures as a new era of sovereignty.
Armed groups loyal to Tehran treat the exit as a vindication and keep their launchers. Washington and Europe therefore need a policy for an Iraq where foreign soldiers no longer offer targets, leverage or excuses. In such an Iraq, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps conceals its weapons in small cells. Only a policy that counts those cells can keep the country from becoming a base for attacks across the Gulf and Yemen.
Departures Without Disarmament
The bargain linking troop departures to weapons handovers has collapsed. Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba initially made the foreign exit a condition for disarming and have since added further demands.
Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, a more polished organisation with seats in parliament, hailed the withdrawal as an “achievement” and urged Baghdad to press Turkish troops to leave as well. Baghdad, for its part, has postponed its disarmament plan until June next year.
Reports say Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq handed over only about half its estimated arsenal, and its leaders blame defectors who formed a new militia. The breakaway group reportedly receives generous Iranian backing, cooperates with the Houthis and took part in recent attacks on Saudi energy sites.
Ankara has met part of the demand. Turkey agreed last week to hand over the Bashiqa-Zilkan camp near Mosul gradually, although it keeps other northern bases for operations against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The timetable remains unannounced, which leaves the factions ample grievances.
Tehran’s Smaller and Leaner Cells
Partial handovers hardly worry Tehran, because the Revolutionary Guard has already built a leaner network. Eight Iraqi sources said the Guard assembled three or four units of about 10 fighters each, with recruits from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq who report directly to Iranian officers.
Iraqi officials say those cells launched drone attacks on Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Investigators are probing a possible link to the May drone strike on the Barakah nuclear plant.
Such a structure defeats any amnesty, since a faction can surrender rockets, keep its name and still lose its best fighters to a chain of command invisible to every ministry.
The threat also includes the Red Sea. Iraqi militias have coordinated with the Houthis against Saudi Arabia, and Saudi authorities reported last month that Houthi strikes wounded 73 civilians and hit energy installations in four southern cities. Gulf energy, Red Sea shipping and Iraqi cells therefore belong to one system of Iranian pressure.
Europe Leverages Energy for Discipline
Europe, in turn, has chosen the leverage it owns, which is commerce. French President Emmanuel Macron praised Zaidi’s efforts to limit weapons to the state, and TotalEnergies will invest in Iraq’s oil sector, a pairing that makes commercial warmth conditional on disarmament.
NATO has relocated its advisory mission to Naples, and two Italian Carabinieri stay on under the EU Advisory Mission in Iraq, which operates with the government’s approval. The footprint is thin, but Baghdad formally welcomes it. Europe’s leverage is therefore commercial and institutional, and it may prove the most durable leverage available.
America’s Pared-Down Bargain
Washington has chosen flexibility. A military official said the troops leaving northern Iraq would mostly redeploy to Jordan and elsewhere in the region. The US describes the change as a transition toward an Iraqi-led effort with “a more normal bilateral security relationship.”
An Iraqi official has said disarmament remains among Washington’s main conditions for friendlier ties. With the war against Iran still under way, the practical content of the relationship is pressure on Tehran, exercised from Jordan and the Gulf.
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