Just over 1,000 kilometres separate Italy’s Lampedusa from Sabha, a dusty military base in southern Libya where Russia now plans to install medium-range missiles aimed squarely at Europe. While Brussels obsesses over Ukraine’s grinding stalemate, Moscow quietly builds a second front that could render Europe’s southern flank defenceless.
As the Ukraine conflict drags into its fourth year with no end in sight, Libya risks becoming the next battlefield where European and Russian forces confront each other through proxies, turning North Africa into a permanent theatre of East-West confrontation.
Libya Becomes Russia’s Mediterranean Springboard
Libya’s descent into chaos since 2011 has gifted Russia an opportunity that Syrian losses made urgent. With Assad’s regime collapsed and Damascus bases lost, Moscow desperately needed alternative footholds in the Mediterranean.
General Khalifa Haftar, who controls eastern Libya including the oil-rich Cyrenaica region, has proven a willing partner for Russia’s expansion southward.
Recent military parades in Benghazi showcased Russian Smerch missile systems and Tor-M2 air defence platforms. Such equipment isn’t defensive installations but offensive weapons capable of striking targets across the Mediterranean. The Smerch system can launch twelve missiles in under forty seconds with a range exceeding fifty miles.
Russia has already transferred over 6,600 tonnes of military equipment to Libya since 2024. Moscow’s forces now occupy Al-Jufra, Al-Qardabiyah, and Brak Al-Shati airbases, establishing a network of installations that stretch from Libya’s coast deep into the Sahara.
Sabha Base: Russia’s Dagger at Europe’s Heart
The crown jewel of Russia’s Libyan expansion sits in Sabha, capital of the Fezzan region.
Sources close to the intelligence dossier confirm that Russia's plan to install missile systems there has reached an advanced stage.
From Sabha, medium and long-range missiles could strike targets across southern Europe while remaining protected by existing Russian air defence systems.
Such positioning goes well past military considerations alone. Sabha sits at the crossroads of trans-Saharan trade routes and migration corridors. Control over the hub grants Moscow leverage over European energy supplies, African resource flows, and Mediterranean security simultaneously.
The base’s strategic value multiplies when combined with Russia’s broader African operations. The Africa Corps, successor to Wagner Group, already operates from Libyan facilities to support Russian interests across the Sahel.
Sabha could become the nerve centre for coordinating operations from Mali to Sudan, whilst threatening European targets directly.
The Ukraine Stalemate Breeds Libyan Conflict
The Ukraine war’s prolonged nature continues to push both Russia and European powers to seek new venues for their competition.
As battlefield lines in eastern Europe remain largely static, both sides look for alternative pressure points. Libya offers Russia an ideal location to threaten European interests without risking direct NATO confrontation.
If Ukraine becomes a frozen conflict lasting years or decades, Libya will inevitably become the next proxy battleground. Russia’s current military buildup there isn’t merely defensive preparation but offensive positioning for future confrontation with European powers.
European states already compete for leverage through different local factions in the war-torn country. Italy backs certain western militias whilst France maintains connections with eastern groups. Russia exploits such divisions by supporting Haftar’s forces against European-backed rivals, building the conditions for escalating proxy warfare.
European Powers Risk Military Entanglement
As Russia strengthens its Libyan position, European powers encounter mounting pressure to respond militarily rather than diplomatically.
Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto warned that Russian military capabilities could soon be positioned "just two steps away" from Italian maritime territory.
Such proximity spawns security dilemmas that diplomacy alone cannot resolve. If Russian missiles in Sabha become operational, European powers will confront stark choices: accept permanent vulnerability or take military action to neutralise the threat. Either option draws Europe deeper into Libyan conflict.
The precedent of Syrian proxy warfare offers a grim preview. What began as limited support for different factions eventually required direct military intervention by multiple powers. Libya’s strategic location makes such escalation even more likely, given Europe’s interests in Mediterranean security.
Migration and Energy: Europe’s Vulnerable Flanks
Russia’s Libyan presence threatens two of Europe’s most sensitive pressure points: migration flows and energy security.
Libya already serves as the primary departure point for African migrants attempting to reach Europe. Russian control over migration routes provides Moscow with powerful leverage over European domestic politics.
Similarly, Libya’s oil reserves and strategic position astride Mediterranean shipping lanes make it central to European energy security. Russia’s growing sway there grants Moscow additional tools for economic coercion against European states already struggling with energy dependency.
Such vulnerabilities ensure that any Russian military buildup in Libya will provoke European responses, spawning escalatory mechanics that could spin out of control. What starts as competition over leverage easily becomes direct confrontation over core interests.
The Proxy War Blueprint
Libya already exhibits many characteristics of emerging proxy conflict.
Multiple external powers back different local factions whilst pursuing their own strategic objectives. Russia supports Haftar’s eastern forces with weapons and military advisers. European states maintain connections with western militias and the Tripoli government.
As the Ukraine conflict persists without resolution, both sides will likely deepen their Libyan commitments. Russia needs alternative venues for pressuring Europe whilst European powers cannot allow unchallenged Russian expansion so close to their territory.
The result resembles Syria’s trajectory: limited initial involvement gradually expanding into direct military confrontation between major powers. Libya’s proximity to Europe makes such escalation even more dangerous than Syrian proxy warfare ever was.
Europe’s Response: Too Little, Too Late
European leaders responded to Russia’s Libyan expansion with characteristic fragmentation and delay.
France and Italy compete over Libyan leverage rather than coordinating responses to Russian encroachment. Germany focuses on migration concerns whilst ignoring the military buildup that makes those concerns secondary.
Such disjointed responses play directly into Moscow’s hands. Russia excels at exploiting European disunity, using bilateral connections to prevent collective action. Each month of European inaction allows Russia to strengthen its Libyan foothold further whilst preparing for the next phase of confrontation.
The window for preventing Russia’s Libyan entrenchment is closing rapidly. Once Russian missile systems become operational in Sabha, European options narrow to either acceptance or military action. Neither choice serves European interests well.
Breaking the Cycle Before Starting
Europe cannot afford to repeat the Syrian mistake in Libya. Instead of allowing gradual escalation toward proxy warfare, European powers must take decisive action now to prevent Russia’s military consolidation there.
First, European naval forces must establish permanent presence in the central Mediterranean, monitoring Russian movements and deterring further military buildups. NATO’s Baltic Sentry initiative provides a model for collective infrastructure protection that could be adapted for North African waters.
Second, Europe needs unified Libya policy that prevents Russia from exploiting Franco-Italian competition. Such unity means choosing coherent strategies rather than allowing different European partners to back competing Libyan factions simultaneously.
Third, European intelligence services must treat Russian activities in Libya as seriously as those in Ukraine. The same networks conducting sabotage operations across Europe are operating in North Africa, requiring similar counterintelligence responses.
Finally, Europe must recognise that Libya poses a direct military threat requiring military responses, not merely diplomatic engagement.
Russian missile systems in Sabha aren’t negotiating positions, but weapons of war aimed at European assets.
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Libya: EU Patches Up a Broken Seam
U.S. and Russian Forces Pull Back from Syria
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