Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched twenty ballistic missiles at Jordan’s Al Azraq base in recent days, the facility that hosts American aircraft. Jordanian air defences destroyed eighteen of them, sparing casualties but not nerves.
The barrage answered American strikes on Iranian oil tankers, part of the war running since February that has dragged Amman into the conflict zone.
Jordan’s foreign minister insists his kingdom “was not a party to this war.” Its bases have still absorbed missiles for months. Loyalty to Washington, cultivated across decades of defence pacts and royal visits, has turned Jordanian soil into a magnet for Iranian fire.
Jordanian loyalty must withstand pressure from more than one direction. West of Amman, the West Bank crisis has drawn in a different set of actors, squeezing the kingdom from two directions at once.
Punishing Over Settler Violence
Britain, France and Canada have unveiled sanctions on Israeli settlements, banning goods and services tied to their expansion. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband accused Israel’s government of turning a blind eye to the displacement of Palestinians.
Israel answered by shutting the British consulate in East Jerusalem and barring eleven MPs from entry. The sanctions build on measures the EU had already imposed on individual settlers, a slower process Hungary had blocked until its government changed hands.
Amman has every reason to welcome the European step. The kingdom, already hosting refugees from three regional wars, counts a Palestinian exodus into Jordanian territory among its oldest fears.
The Colonial Quarrel Reopened
London’s confrontation with Israel has spilled into territory far removed from Gaza or the Jordan River.
Yair Netanyahu, the prime minister’s son, backed Argentina’s claim to the Falkland Islands, under British administration since the nineteenth century. Ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir went further, urging recognition of Argentine sovereignty and the expulsion of Britain’s ambassador. Javier Milei, the Argentine president admired by each of them, supplied the outburst’s rationale.
The row baffled Britain’s political right, who had counted Israel among the defenders of Britain’s old possessions.
Britain’s prime minister called the settlement measures proof of national leadership, casting sanctions as principle.
Israel’s answer through the Falklands betrays Netanyahu’s government hunting for any lever that might embarrass London ahead of the election scheduled for 27 October.
The election, the first since war erupted three years ago, has turned foreign quarrels into domestic weapons for his coalition, trailing in the polls.
Washington’s Studied Silence
Before Britain announced its sanctions, Donald Trump was briefed and reportedly raised no objection, a detail irritating Israeli officials hoping for firmer American backing.
His administration has offered no comment on the Falklands provocation either, saying only that Washington reviews “every position.”
The silence carries its own message. The United States is protecting the Gaza deal, signed last October and still fragile, and an open quarrel with two allies at once would drain its leverage over each.
Iran has read Washington’s caution as an opening. Its security officials describe their doctrine as defence “with the aim of defending, but using offensive approaches so that the enemy does not have the initiative,” in a commander’s words.
Striking Jordan lets Tehran prove it can menace Israel without opening a direct front, a message meant as much for Gulf audiences as for Amman.
Israeli officials have also warned that states aiding Tehran risk a decisive response, a threat travelling well past the Gulf. In parallel, Israel’s military has widened its campaign in southern Lebanon, striking Hezbollah positions after drone launches across the border and killing several civilians last weekend.
Confluence in the Jordan Valley
These recent disputes all reinforce one another along a corridor stretching from the Jordan River to the Gulf.
Iran’s missiles leave Jordan anxious about its stability, while European sanctions have isolated Israel’s government abroad. Disagreement over settler violence continues to place Israel’s relationship with Britain under pressure, before a vote that could alter that relationship completely. Washington meanwhile keeps each dispute at a distance, working to maintain the Gaza ceasefire through the season.
How long Amman’s alliance with Washington holds may depend less on Tehran’s missiles than on Israel’s next government and its approach to settlements, the issue that started this chain of events. Europe has shown it can act without American backing, just as Iran has shown it can strike allied territory without facing retaliation within its own borders.
Caught between these two positions, Jordan has little option but to keep accepting the consequences of a bond it still considers essential.
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