Syria’s new interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, visited Mecca after arriving in Riyadh yesterday in a trip that reveals more than can be let on for Syria’s future.
Whilst the future of Syria, after the December Revolution seems grey if not completely opaque, the latest stream of shuttle diplomacy back and forth reveals Syria’s political trajectory as Syrians rebuild, reconstruct, and rise from the rubble.
Ahmed al-Sharaa’s ascendence to the presidency is nothing short of remarkable.
Türkiye may have helped with his rise to power, but the Saudis are calling the shots behind the scenes. Today the Syrian president visited Ankara, but yesterday he undertook Umrah in Mecca.
Saudi Patronage: Syria’s New Patron
Landing in Mecca, at the holiest site of Islam, al-Sharaa’s visit– later documented by his pilgrimage through the ancient city – revealed the direction of travel Syria is bound to.
Such a symbolic gesture although meaningful for al-Sharaa, having grown up in the Kingdom during childhood, aimed to garner legitimate support for Ahmed al-Sharaa, across the Arab and Islamic world.
The timing could not have been more important as the President faces internal challenges to his leadership on two fronts: Turkish-Kurdish tensions in the north-east and Israeli outpost construction in the south-west. Scenes of al-Sharaa in Mecca follow his revamp from jihadi to rebel and now president.
Unity in the face of challenges is the resounding message the Saudis hoped to convey. His red carpet roll out gave us a glimpse of the main patrons at play in Syria, what that means for Syria, and the region’s future.
Saudi Support: American & European Support
Since the revolution, Washington and the EU-27 peeled off sanctions whilst Damascus sought to source patrons to finance reconstruction efforts.
Such events reveal the cooperation between the West and the Saudi Kingdom as Riyadh hosted a conference on Syria marking Syria’s first official foreign visit after the fall of the Assad dynasty since the reign of Hafez al-Assad.
Türkiye: No Lira, but Islamism and Defence
Türkiye’s financial weakness, under President Recip Erdogan, forces Ankara into second place on Syria. Erdogan orchestrated the downfall of Bashar al-Assad, an achievement still gaining traction on the Kurdish front in northeast Syria as the Kurds face the reality of marginalisation once again, yet the realities of Türkiye’s financial constraint limit its options in post-Assad Syria.
Türkiye’s involvement in rebuilding Syria isn’t just unviable as it is unacceptable in the Arab world. Arab states judge Erdogan’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood as illicit as they are threatening for GCC states.
Türkiye’s support for Islamism, in the wake of the Arab Spring, comes up against hard resistance in Gulf capitals. Arab states seek to avoid a scenario that swaps out Tehran for Ankara.
The Gulf can stomach Saudi leadership in Syria, in the transition from war to development, on the condition that Gulf investment projects make a hefty return and such policies support their agenda of national renewal; Vision 2030 in Syria offers just that.
Türkiye: Military Gains in Syria
However intolerable Türkiye’s role may be in Syria for GCC capitals, with the exception of Doha, Arab states will have to accept some partnership between Ankara and Damascus on defence.
Türkiye are likely to get some concessions from Damascus. Early reports indicate Erdogan’s push for military bases in central and western Syria as Russia withdraws from Syrian bases in Tartous and Khmeimim.
However, financial assistance in return for political control is likely to be limited, after all al-Sharaa decided to visit Riyadh first before Ankara.
Türkiye will gain control of strategic bases, under a pending defence treaty with Damascus, yet Saudi leadership on GCC development and international diplomacy may outmanoeuvre any strategic depth Türkiye may gain in Syria.
American & GCC Pressure: Options
Washington and its Gulf allies face many moving parts in Syria.
Trump must keep up the pressure on Türkiye to hold off its advance on the YPG whilst biding time for Damascus to fold Kurdish factions into the Syrian army.
If the Americans can do that, al-Sharaa can consolidate power without being undermined by an open conflict between the Turkish-backed SNA and American allies in the YPG.
If conflict opens out between the SNA and YPG, be sure that al-Sharaa will find it difficult to centralise power with the real risk of further rounds of ethno-sectarian violence.
Violence between Kurdish factions risks the re-emergence of Daesh currently imprisoned in YPG-controlled territory.
Riyadh in the Front Seat
Riyadh has both the fiscal firepower and motivations to call the shots in Syria.
Without Iranian involvement and Türkiye out of the picture, on comprehensive post-war reconstruction, Riyadh has every incentive to guide internal politics and foreign policy in Syria.
Part of this is supported by Saudi Vision 2030 whilst other motivations, revolve around Israel’s ongoing violation of UNSC Resolutions in and beyond the Golan Heights, which Saudi Arabia actively condemns.
Opportunities for business, denouncing Israeli actions, whilst actively using events in Syria to leverage favourable terms for the Saudi Kingdom when normalisation comes under Trump’s administration is quite a lucrative proposal for His Highness Mohammed bin Salman.
Business and optics provide MbS with favourable leverage in Syria, on normalisation, and for Vision 2030.
From jihadi to president, all within a couple of months, is nothing short of remarkable.
However good his rebrand may be, be sure that the Syrian people will benefit, but Riyadh is firmly in the driving seat.
