Abiy Ahmed’s handshake with French President Emmanuel Macron, followed by a visit to Rome alongside the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, can be understood as a shift in strategy with Africa.
These high-profile visits send a clear message: Ethiopia is positioning itself as a vital, stabilising ally for Europe in East Africa at a time when large swathes of the continent are racked by coups and chaos, often abetted by Moscow’s ambitions.
Renewed Partnership in a Volatile African Landscape
Abiy Ahmed’s charm offensive in Europe comes against a backdrop of upheaval on the continent.
Across West and Central Africa, military coups have toppled democratic governments.
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger now fall under military rule.
Russia has eagerly stepped into this vacuum. Through its mercenaries and disinformation campaigns, the Kremlin has built ties with these regimes. In doing so, it has undermined European influence.
Ethiopia offers a counterbalance. After emerging from its own devastating conflict in Tigray, the country has shifted toward stability.
Abiy’s government now positions Ethiopia as a pillar of order in the Horn of Africa. This positioning aligns well with Europe’s priorities.
Security and Stability in the Horn
The Horn remains vital to Europe’s strategic interests.
Over 20% of European trade flows through the Red Sea.
Instability in this region jeopardises commercial routes, drives migration, and fuels extremism.
Sudan’s ongoing civil war, Somalia’s long insurgency, and Eritrea’s isolationism amplify these risks.
Ethiopia, with its population of 120 million and a capable military, anchors the region.
Europe needs credible partners. In Abiy, European leaders see a statesman willing to collaborate. His visits to Macron and Meloni didn’t just revive old friendships, they signalled that Ethiopia wants to be part of Europe’s long-term strategy in Africa.
Ethiopia’s Unique History
Historically, Ethiopia has maintained a unique relationship with Europe. Unlike most African nations, it avoided colonisation.
Ethiopia defeated Italy at the Battle of Adwa in 1896, asserting its independence. Despite later occupation under Mussolini, Ethiopia reemerged as a proud, sovereign nation. It became a founding member of the United Nations and later hosted the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa.
European nations, particularly Italy, Britain, and France, have long maintained a presence in Ethiopia, supporting development and diplomacy.
Politically, Abiy Ahmed’s government also offers Europe a comparatively moderate and reformist partner in a neighbourhood of autocrats and warlords.
After winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending Ethiopia’s conflict with Eritrea, Abiy positioned himself as a new generation of African leader – one espousing reconciliation, economic reform, and regional integration.
Although the subsequent Tigray war tarnished that image, the Pretoria peace agreement of 2022 opened the door for Ethiopia’s rehabilitation on the world stage.
Economic and Development Ties: Mutual Interests in Growth
Today, the focus has shifted to partnership and mutual interest.
In Paris, Macron and Abiy discussed security cooperation, technology sharing, and investment.
In Rome, Meloni emphasised trade ties and migration management. Italy sees Ethiopia as key to curbing irregular migration from the Horn.
Ethiopia, in turn, sees Europe as a source of investment and legitimacy.
For Europe, this economic diplomacy is a welcome opening.
By courting European investors and aid, Abiy hopes to diversify Ethiopia’s partnerships and reduce overreliance on any single foreign patron.
The outcome is a win-win.
Ethiopia secures resources to drive its growth and post-war reconstruction, while Europe strengthens its economic foothold in a strategic region and showcases a model of partnership distinct from China’s debt-heavy loans or Russia’s mercenary-driven deals.
A Vital Alliance at a Critical Time
By the end of Abiy Ahmed’s European tour, one thing was clear: Ethiopia and Europe need each other more than ever.
While Russian-backed regimes sow instability in West Africa, Ethiopia is demonstrating that an African nation can chart its own path to stability and still find common cause with liberal democracies.
Expectations are high on both sides. European leaders will look for Ethiopia to continue reforms, uphold human rights, and remain a force for peace in its neighbourhood.
Ethiopian leaders, for their part, will expect Europe to deliver on economic promises and respect Ethiopia’s agency, rather than lecturing from afar.
Early signs are encouraging as the discourse has shifted to pragmatic cooperation.
East Africa is surrounded by fragile states and foreign interference, a stable Ethiopian-European axis could be a cornerstone of regional order.
Ethiopia’s increasing engagement with Europe is a timely reminder that constructive alliances can still flourish in Africa.
By embracing Ethiopia as a partner, Europe is not only shoring up a key ally in the Horn, but also affirming a vision of Africa’s future built on stability, sovereignty, and shared progress, rather than instability and external manipulation.
In the grand chessboard of 21st-century geopolitics, the Ethiopia-Europe alliance may well prove to be a decisive move in favour of peace and security in a region critical to both.
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