The militant group al-Shabaab has captured nearly 20 towns and villages in central Somalia in recent weeks. The renewed push brings the fighters dangerously close to the capital Mogadishu.
Capital Under Threat as Militants Seize Key Towns
Al-Shabaab forces have reached positions just 10 kilometers from Mogadishu. The group set up checkpoints between Mogadishu and Afgoye town to gather illegal taxes from drivers.
The militants took over the key town of Barire on Friday. This adds to their hold on Awdhegle and Sabid. All three towns lie along river crossings that lead to the capital.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has urged local leaders to back the army’s efforts. He wants to stop towns like Adale and Adan Yabal from falling to the militants.
The president’s own convoy came under attack near the presidential palace. The bold strike showed al-Shabaab’s growing strength and reach.
Analyst Warns of Shift to Offensive Campaign
Militancy expert Mohameden Ayba Ayba told The Daily Euro Times that al-Shabaab has shifted to attack mode.
Ayba: "Anyone following al-Shabaab's latest meetings can see they changed their strategy from defense to attack phase about a month and a half ago," Ayba Ayba said. "They've entered a sweeping offensive across all areas of Somalia under their control."
Ayba Ayba noted the group had even tried to kill the Somali president on his way to Mogadishu airport.
"Their control of several towns and push toward Mogadishu shows they've truly entered the phase they planned – the advance and attack phase."
The analyst believes the Syria scenario may have spurred al-Shabaab’s moves despite the different geography and demography. But “what works in Syria might not work in Somalia – still, it’s worth a shot.”
Ayba Ayba mentioned talk of Turkish planes perhaps stopping the fall of the capital. The Turkish involvement “follows Ethiopian troop buildups to block the capital from falling to al-Shabaab.”
Al-Shabaab and IS: Two Rivals With Different Goals
While al-Shabaab links to al-Qaeda and seeks to build an Islamic state through Somalia, IS works with a more global outlook.
The U.S. has carried out airstrikes against IS fighters in Somalia’s Puntland region. One strike killed 13 fighters on 8 May.
IS has won some followers in Puntland. Yet it stays small next to al-Shabaab, which once held much of Somalia.
The two groups often clash with each other. Al-Shabaab wants to set up rule in Somalia first. IS seeks to be part of a wider caliphate beyond Somalia’s borders.
Al-Shabaab has changed its ways. It now avoids killing many civilians and runs its own form of order in areas it holds.
This is no longer just a militant group staging random attacks, writes Adam Daud Ahmed, a Horn of Africa expert. Al-Shabaab "is capturing strategic towns, creeping ever closer to the capital, and shifting from an insurgency to a government-in-waiting."
Regional Powers Add to Tricky Picture
Ethiopia has ruled out sending ground troops to Middle Shabelle region.
Addis Ababa still uses planes to hit al-Shabaab spots.
Egypt plans to send 1,500 troops with attack choppers to the area. This has made al-Shabaab rush toward Mogadishu before these forces come in June.
Horn of Africa expert Rashid Abdi asked, “Why would they clear Shabelle for Egypt, a strategic foe?” This hints at the long dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt.
The people of Mogadishu live in calm for now. Yet many seem to accept that al-Shabaab might take over.
If Mogadishu falls, the crisis will shake the whole Horn of Africa. Kenya, which has faced deadly al-Shabaab raids, may see more attacks.
Ethiopia would face more threats when already dealing with its own troubles.
The Somali government seems split by inner fights and power grabs. "Somalia's leaders are too busy fighting each other to fight al-Shabaab," Ahmed points out.
It seems unity is the only weapon worth fighting for in this battle.
Keep up with Daily Euro Times for more updates!
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