The United Kingdom’s population is projected to rise by five million over the next decade, marking the highest growth rate in Europe for the first time in years. This increase, driven by high net migration, will reshape the country’s economic and social landscape while posing challenges on housing, healthcare, and infrastructure.
What’s Driving Population Growth?
The UK’s Office for National Statistics expects the UK population to grow from approximately 67 million to around 72 million by 2035. This growth is primarily attributed to net migration, which is a key driver of demographic change. In 2023 alone, net migration contributed to nearly 80% of the UK’s population growth, reflecting global mobility trends and the country’s continued appeal as a destination for work and study.
A European Outlier: the UK Compared to the EU-27
While birth rates in the UK have declined, they remain relatively stable compared to other European nations experiencing severe population shrinkage, such as Italy and Germany.
The UK’s projected growth is notable given that much of Europe faces declining or stagnating populations. Countries like Germany and Italy are expected to see population decreases due to ageing demographics and low birth rates despite immigration efforts. France, previously a leader in population growth due to high birth rates, is also experiencing a slowdown.
The UK’s growth surpassing these countries marks a shift in demographic trends, signalling the country’s continued economic attractiveness despite Brexit-related uncertainties. This resilience is a testament to the UK’s enduring appeal and potential for growth.
Opportunities and Challenges Ahead
While a growing population can boost the economy by growing the workforce and consumer base, it also presents several challenges:
Housing Crisis
The UK already faces a severe housing shortage, with rising property prices and rental costs. A growing population will increase demand, necessitating large-scale housing developments.
The Strain on Healthcare and Infrastructure
The NHS is already under pressure, and a growing population will require further investment in hospitals, schools, and public transport.
Political Debates on Immigration
Net migration is a significant factor, so the debate over immigration policies will likely intensify, impacting upcoming elections and government strategies.
ONS Estimates With a Pinch of Salt
The ONS emphasises that the projections are based on the latest mid-year population estimates for each UK country and the latest births, deaths, and migration data. ONS projections are not forecasts and will differ from actual future outcomes to a greater or lesser extent. This caution is important to keep in mind when considering the future population growth.
It is impossible to consider all possible factors or to know what impacts these might have in advance.
Irrespective of Brexit, the UK continues to attract the brightest and most able immigrants from around the world. Whilst this may be in keeping with Chancellor Reeves’ vision, under the new Labour government, it exacerbates existing challenges for the government on healthcare, housing, and infrastructure.
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