Nine days into Trump’s presidency and the tides are shifting in European foreign policy for good or for worse.
Whatever you may think about the U.S. President, with his flurry of executive orders coming into effect this week, stateside, his presidency continues to force Europe to level up its foreign policy for the better.
NATO: U.S. Security Umbrella
For too long, European countries have relied on the U.S. for its security umbrella; a natural legacy of the horrors of the Second World War turned into an unhealthy dependence on American military aid.
Like a toxic relationship, France, Germany, and the UK continue to call the shots on European defence policy – with U.S. oversight – whilst the Baltics and some Mediterranean states, Spain and Italy, rely on U.S. assistance and often fail to meet the 2% defence spending quota.
Trump’s rise to the White House is recalibrating Europe’s commitment to their own borders. Back in 2020, under Trump’s first term, NATO allies significantly increased their percentage of defence expenditure; eleven out of thirty NATO members surpassed the ‘2% of GDP for defence’. Such an achievement followed the economic blowback of Covid-19.
Fast forward to 2025 and the Baltic countries are accelerating plans on defence spending whilst Spain and Italy ramp up spending despite internal dissent.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys: this shift is part of a “new era” with Vilnius committing to a 5-6% of GDP on defence expenditure until at least 2030.
In a direct response to President Trump, who outlined his plans to raise defence spending to more than 5% of GDP, Lithuania and Estonia announced new targets at the start of this week whilst Spain responded to U.S. criticism of Madrid at the WEF in Davos.
President Sanchez responded directly to Trump; “Spain is a reliable partner in NATO and has increased its defence spending by 70% in the last decade.”
Spain, however, fails to meet NATO targets and neglects defence contrary to its relative size as the fourth largest eurozone economy.
Continued U.S. pressure will heighten tensions with Spain and Italy to meet their own defence obligations, under NATO, as both states face the memory of military fascism and national myopia from any external military on its doorstep: Russia.
Added pressure from Hungary and Slovakia, in opposition to Russian sanctions, continues to swing momentum behind Trump on ending ‘all wars’ irrespective of any terms or conditions that may be ahead.
Trump & Greenland: Europe’s Nostalgia
Trump’s egregious demands, to acquire Greenland, amount to modern day irredentism, seen most notably by the very actors the White House ‘condemns’: Russia in Ukraine.
Trump’s demands must be taken with a pinch of salt, however, as the realities of Greenland being ‘taken’ by U.S. military pressure is as unlikely as Denmark maintaining a decades long hold on the Greenlandic people.
In 2025, the age of European colonialism has collapsed and European capitals have no mandate to hold onto far-away territories whose national identity is distinct to their own.
Amidst all of this is a vindication that Europe cannot and should not hold onto distant territories, whose populations do not support a European presence. The UK realised this with the Commonwealth, yet still to this day holds ‘legal sovereignty’ over maritime territories, but things are shifting.
Diego-Garcia, in the Chagos Islands, is being handed back to Mauritius pending U.S. approval of a revised agreement with the Mauritian government to maintain Diego-Garcia; it is formulas like this that are in-touch with twenty-first century realities.
Denmark’s claim to Greenland is outdated and U.S. pressure on Denmark, despite the outlandish nature, may amount to a welcome call for independence for the Greenlandic people. When independence comes, Greenland has the right to decide the terms to which Nuuk seeks cooperation with the White House.
Israel-Palestine: Two-State Solution
Trump’s plan to “clean them out“, otherwise known as the Palestinians, sent shivers down the spines of all actors: U.S. policymakers, European allies, and Arab states. Longstanding policy, in the U.S. and across the international community, revolves around the recognition of a two-state solution along the lines of the borders demarcated before the Six Days War of 1967.
The messianic right-wing bloc in Israel lauded Trump’s plan whilst statements in Berlin, Cairo, Amman, and even GOP Congressional halls signalled alarm. If anything, Trump’s plan to ‘transform’ Gaza into his next Mar-a-Largo will never gain real traction but his statements impact talk of recognition in European circles.
Norway, Spain, and Ireland recognised Palestinian statehood whilst other EU states failed to take the leap of faith, but Trump’s statements reaffirm – in theory albeit words – that key European states, Germany, France, and the UK – are adamant on a two-state solution even if it seems like these are mere statements.
Trump’s posture on “ending all wars” is courageous but his way of proposing solutions, that puts business first and policy second, ignite backlash and with it unity amongst his European allies.
Any reversal on U.S. policy, on issues as intractable as the Palestinian issue, may encourage European capitals to be bolder and recognise statehood as a rebuff of Trump’s plan to go ahead and destroy any chance of a solution on 1967 lines.
Coordination on China: A Balanced Approach
When it comes to China, Trump and the Europeans find common ground. Beijing’s publication of DeepSeek’s AI venture, on the cheap, was no surprise to Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she arrived back from Beijing with her latest piggybank full of Chinese Yuan.
Trump lauded the start-up venture, at a fraction of the cost as rivals in Silicon Valley, as a “positive development” whilst the UK, Spain, and other European countries call for greater technological transfer between Beijing and the continent.
Amongst all these moving parts… is common chatter in European circles on issues that seemed divisive and almost intractable. Trump may test EU unity amidst policy challenges, but in reality this brings more opportunities for European foreign policy than challenges.
On Ukraine, there ought to be a solution to the current stalemate, Greenland deserves self-determination, the Middle East demands sustainable and tangible solutions to the ‘day after’ in Gaza, and Europe must chart its own course on China, that works alongside Beijing, without bowing down to those who are equally isolationist as they are Sinophobic.
You may not agree with President Trump’s actions at home or abroad, but his actions are forcing Europe to unite, through carrot and stick, on issues that once seemed intractable.
Only time will tell if Trump’s politics produce positive outcomes for Europe. Whether this is intentional or a unintended consequence is yet to be determined.
