Within days, Sudan’s army has curbed its purchases of Iranian drones, betting that distance from Tehran might unlock American backing for the talks Khartoum needs to end its war. Such posturing towards Washington raises an obvious question about another patron Sudan has courted with equal enthusiasm.
The available record implies Moscow’s ambition for a naval foothold on the Red Sea has not retreated. It has simply gone dormant as General Burhan extracts more concessions from the West.
Cycle Of Freeze And Revival
The history of stop and start stretches back nine years and makes it apparent that the naval project advances exclusively at junctures Sudan’s rulers need it most.
General Omar al-Bashir first offered Port Sudan to Moscow in 2017, seeking protection from Western isolation after years of sanctions. Khartoum and Moscow signed a formal accord at the end of 2020, allowing for up to four Russian vessels, including nuclear-powered ones, and three hundred personnel at the site.
The plan ground to a halt after al-Bashir’s fall, then resurfaced once General Burhan’s faction regained ground against the Rapid Support Forces.
Sudan’s then foreign minister, Ali Yusuf Sharif, spoke in Moscow last year that “there are no obstacles, we are in complete agreement.”Â
Months later, Russia’s ambassador to Khartoum announced a suspension, citing the ongoing war, and a Sudanese military source confirmed soon after that the file remained frozen on both sides.
Washington’s New Point Of Leverage
The recurring freeze now collides with a new push from Washington to mould the terms of any future thaw. Four senators from both parties introduced the Preventing External Aggression and Conflict Escalation in Sudan Act this month, naming the war a threat to American interests and to regional stability.
The bill would expand sanctions discretion, tighten guidance for American businesses, and compel Washington’s State Department to report regularly on which foreign governments are arming Sudan’s warring factions.
Such reporting would place Moscow’s naval ambitions on a public record whether or not a base ever opens. Senator Jeanne Shaheen contended a stable Sudan would benefit Red Sea commerce and American security alike, a framing that links the naval question directly to the legislation’s purpose.
Brussels Adds Its Own Conditions
The recalibration that produced Sudan’s outreach to Iran’s rivals also explains why European diplomats visited this month with conditions of their own.
The visiting mission criticised the unchecked flow of weapons and foreign fighters into Sudan and reaffirmed support for a civilian-led process built around regional and international groupings.
Brussels and Washington are therefore converging on a single message for Khartoum, that normalisation hinges on verifiable de-escalation rather than diplomatic gestures alone.
General Burhan’s army has not severed its foreign arms pipeline so much as diversified it, with Egypt and Turkey positioned to fill any gap left by Tehran.
The Base Remains a Bargaining Chip
Each external player General Burhan courts receives a version of the same message, his readiness to pause the Russian deal any time doing so might earn him favour.
Reports earlier this year claimed Sudan had proposed Moscow a twenty-five-year arrangement for Port Sudan in exchange for air defence systems needed against the RSF, even as General Burhan separately told Saudi officials that all such base plans remained frozen.
Both claims can be true at once. Sudan’s leadership keeps the offer alive as currency, maintaining a public posture cautious enough to avoid alarming Washington and Riyadh.
What To Expect
Russia’s interest in a Red Sea anchorage grew sharper after the regime change in Syria deprived Moscow of its only naval facility on the Mediterranean. Port Sudan remains the most realistic option within reach, which gives Moscow every incentive to keep the file open no matter how long Khartoum delays signature.
The honest measure of the ensuing months will not be whether Sudan’s diplomats keep insisting the project sits on ice. It will be whether the ceasefire talks Washington and Brussels are now pushing actually bear fruit, or whether General Burhan simply reopens the Moscow file once Western patience and Western funding fail to materialise on his preferred timetable.
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