Yesterday, President Trump announced upcoming tariffs on one of the U.S.’ main export partners: the European Union. Standing outside Air Force One, Trump promised to levy tariffs on the EU but held open the possibility of a deal being worked out with the UK.
There is no easy answer to say why Britain continues to escape Trump’s trade war, but analysts have long alluded to Trump’s soft spot for Britain. Whilst this may be true, is there more to this story than ancestral links and Trump’s love for British pageantry?
Britain may enjoy a so-called ‘special relationship’ with the U.S., but surely when it comes to business, even with its closest allies, favourship doesn’t exist. Well, Trump’s ‘logic’ on this latest round of tariffs suggests otherwise. Questions arise on how the UK may navigate this new set of tariffs, what it means for Britain, and the road ahead.
Trump’s Tariffs: Mexico & Canada
Trump’s latest tariffs continue to stir stock market angst and national security threats.
The president’s logic is expected when it comes to Mexico, but it is most jarring for Canadian policymakers. Trump’s justification for this latest move, citing illegal migration and fentanyl supply lines, is true for its southern neighbour but not Canada.
Responding to Trump’s actions, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke on X: “the better path is to partner with Canada, than to punish us… our border is already safe and secure with less than 1% of fentanyl and illegal crossings coming from Canada.”
Facts, Fentanyl, and Fallout
Fentanyl is a serious domestic problem in the U.S., yet supplies are sourced then imported illegally from three main supply routes: Mexico, China, and India.
Data from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration supports Trudeau’s claim. In 2024, U.S. border patrol seized just 43 pounds of fentanyl along America’s northern border.
Realities of Tariffs in a Globalised World
Taxing Canadian imports will cause short-term pain for no ‘long term gain’ in U.S. consumer markets as levied markets, such as Canada, have already factored in further rounds of tariffs should Trump levy additional taxes in coming months.
As supply chains remain interconnected, the cumulative macroeconomic impacts amount to a possible global recession, which fails to take into account of retailiatory rounds of tariffs by affected markets.
Comparing Logic: Tariffs on the European Union Versus Britain
Trade may matter, outside Air Force One, but in reality it is not trade Trump cares about but philosophy; Trump is an ideologist at heart. Understanding his latest moves coincides with his disdain for EU politics which shares parallels with recent decisions on the withdrawal of U.S. membership from (multilateral) institutions.
Plans to tariff the EU-27 align with Trump’s latest policies: U.S.’ support for the ban on UNRWA, withdrawal from the WHO, and end to USAID missions abroad. Whilst the EU-27 increased their trade surplus, with the U.S. since 2020, consumption of EU goods ‘surprisingly’ benefits the U.S. economy whilst European regulations on agriculture and food standards have a purpose.
Together, there is a theme of ‘America First’, but rebranded home and abroad. Trump acts in a way similar to the years after 9/11 where America took unilateral actions in Afghanistan, then Iraq, under the pretext of the ‘War on Terror’.
Trump may seek to end ‘all wars’, in part suggesting isolationism, but he is somewhat proactive to find ‘solutions’, even if you disagree with them, on Ukraine, Gaza, and now the EU-27. Solutions, however, demand America First without due process. Friends are being shuffled in line, for their latest shouting down, with talks of retailiatory measures being discussed in Brussels today.
Trump’s vision goes beyond unilateralism since it redefines ‘American injustice’… instead broadening injustice to equate longstanding U.S. allies as ‘national security threats’ in addition to America’s usual foes: China, Iran, and Russia.
Bridging the Divide: Two Sides of the Atlantic
Amongst all of this is an opportunity for Starmer to play the middle road in leveraging the UK’s third-party position outside of the EU, in favour of a closer relationship on security and defence with the EU, whilst seeking a closer more ‘equitable’ relationship with the U.S. on trade. Whether Starmer gets caught in the crossfire is questionable.
Whilst sceptics outlined their hesitation for warm relations, around President Trump and “liberal” Starmer, early indications suggest that relations are off to a warm start. Speaking outside Air Force One, whilst posting on X, Trump applauded Starmer for “doing a very good job” in Britain.
Starmer in Brussels: Re-Setting UK-EU Relations
As Starmer heads to Brussels today, relations with Britain’s European neighbours are on the mend.
Unlike his neighbours, who face populist wave in Germany, France, and the Danube, Starmer has free reign to chart a foreign policy independent of vested interests on the left of his party, in addition to those Conservative opposition benches, on contentious issues: immigration and calls for UK accession to a EU Customs Union.
Re-setting ties with the EU-27, reaffirming NATO support amidst the war in Ukraine, whilst staying clear of an upcoming spat between the EU-27 and Trump are all sensible moves that Keir Starmer is making ground on.
UK in a Sweet Spot
Imbalance on trade, clearly matters to Trump yet it is sovereignty, territorial expansion for ‘U.S. national security’, and unilateralism that drives Trump’s ‘America First’ under his second term.
If Starmer can put politics aside, the UK can navigate its newfound position as a mediator between the U.S. and EU-27 on trade disputes, push the EU on NATO spending and Ukraine, whilst deepening trade ties with the U.S. in search of a comprehensive trade agreement that may limit the macroeconomic shocks of an upcoming trade war.
Starmer must navigate a careful balacing act between closer ties with the EU-27 whilst considering the personal ego and interests of President Trump.
Stay tuned to Daily Euro Times for the latest insights!
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