By June 2025, Italy held a two-day referendum that proposed making it easier to obtain citizenship: reducing the period of residence from 10 to 5 years, as well as strengthening the protection of workers’ rights. These initiatives were supported by left-wing parties, trade unions and civil movements.
However, the vote failed – the turnout was about 30%, which is significantly lower than the required threshold of 50% +1 vote. The opposition accused the Meloni government of trying to suppress the vote, calling on supporters to boycott the referendum
Why Citizenship is a Sensitive Issue?
The Italian public stood divided.
Although 65% of participants voted “for” the simplification, it failed to mobilise broad support. A regional analysis showed that civic centers (Milan, Turin) were more open to the reforms, but the outskirts, where low-paid and conservative voters predominate, opposed the changes.
Many feared that the new measures would open the way to mass migration, reinforcing fears over national identity.
Meloni’s government also put forward arguments about the anti-popular nature of the reforms, which deepened the division. The prime minister and her allies even announced that they would not vote, calling for a boycott, which had a dramatic effect on turnout.
Migration as a Possible Solution
One of the key arguments in favour of simplifying citizenship was migration.
Economists noted that without an influx of labor migration, Italy cannot maintain the current level of benefit spending. According to calculations, the country needs to accept up to 2.2 million migrants annually to maintain a healthy balance between the labour force and the economically inactive.
The citizenship reform included recognition of the status of the children of migrants born and raised in Italy, in turn stabilising a demographic base.
European Concerns
In Brussels and other European capitals, similar debates were held: maintaining the birth rate of the population in the context of rising living costs, underemployment, and a housing affordability crisis. Migration was seen as a short-term measure to compensate for the collapsing demographic base.
Contradictions of Migration Policy
However, migration is causing political resistance.
Right-wing parties, in particular Meloni and Salvini, argued that Italy should focus on supporting “family of origin” rather than increasing the number of migrants. Melon and Salvini argued that traditional “family values” are more important than population growth and that citizenship access is a tool not only for demographics, but for spreading cultural norms and restoring identity.
The argument for social resettlement of excess population had racist overtones, generating fears of loss of identity and increased crime.
Judging by official data, it worked: the referendum was significantly less popular than the questions on labour protection, with over 85% of voters voting in favor.
Lessons to Learn
The failure of the citizenship initiative demonstrated a key problem in European (and global) societies: the problem of low birth rates has not convinced the masses of the need to migrate.
Demographers, businesses, and experts warn of the consequences: without a revision of migration policy, Italy will experience a protracted demographic collapse, threatening social stability.
On the other hand, public discourse has focused not so much on the low birth rate as for ‘cultural stability‘. Some skeptics believe that it is more profitable for the state to invest in improving the conditions of families, increasing the availability of housing, supporting children, rather than stimulating migration.
Debates of the Future: Ruble and Demography
The aggravation of the citizenship issue has become not so much political as the interweaving of demography, identity, and economic necessity. Italian and European authorities will have to find a balance:
- Integration of migrants and consideration of their potential in demography and the workforce.
- Support for the birth rate through targeted social packages: housing, kindergartens, maternity grants, flexible hours.
- Revision of media policy in favour of informing society about demographic challenges and the benefits of migration.
The failure of the vote in Italy showed that without a balance between migration and support for the birth rate, Europe faces a demographic and social impasse.
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