The UAE 2031 Vision is in full swing as it lands its 27th deal with the European Union. In effect, this represents 27 seperate economic partnerships wrapped into one comprehensive partnership with the UAE’s second-largest trading partner.
Amidst shifting tides, Abu Dhabi is leveraging its investments in reliable partners, whilst both the UAE and EU diversify trade ties.
According to official data, Abu Dhabi exported $67.6bn in bilateral non-oil trade in 2024 alone, whilst the UAE is the largest trading partner of the bloc in the Middle East and North Africa region.
This marks the 27th CEPA member looking to initiate talks with Abu Dhabi as 21 agreements are signed and six countries, including the EU, look to enter negotiations and sign a deal with the Emirates.
27th CEPA for 27 States
Writing on X, “the European Union Commission President von der Leyen held a cordial phone call with His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE. During their discussion, they agreed to launch negotiations on a free trade agreement,” the EU said.
The latest announcement comes as the EU and GCC began negotiating an FTA in 1990, talks stalled by 2008, and some of the slower moving members of the GCC have undercut negotiations with the bloc since.
One government source familiar with the GCC negotiations, told the Daily Euro Times, that Abu Dhabi is keen to leverage it's partnership with the EU whilst fellow Khaleeji GCC members, such as Kuwait and Oman, have been slow to pursue a EU-GCC trade deal for different reasons.
Internal Barriers, the GCC
In Kuwait, however, updating policies for foreign investors faces political challenges. Parliamentary bureaucracy hinders innovation and often revolves around specific factions, with many Kuwaiti companies even choosing to locate business outside of the country itself.
Oman, sits at the the other end of the spectrum, as a sultanate with a different attitude to development.
Although Muscat holds close relations with Britain, attitudes to business differ to policymakers in the UAE, KSA, and Qatar, whose leaders are laser focussed on futuristic bids of innovation.
Muscat contains many minerals, yet it only has 4 official free trading zones, yet the UAE has over 45 FTZs. Additional barriers include limited infrastructure hubs, for supply-side capacity, whilst Muscat relies heavily on hydrocarbon revenues.
Therefore, internal differences across Kuwait and Oman hinder a united front when it comes to inviting business investment, opening up to FDI, and competing with 27 other member states.
Abu Dhabi’s latest move, through it’s series of CEPA agreements, are symbolic as the GCC has failed to find unity on economic policy whilst the UAE seeks to take its own path as a leading force on economic trade, political mediation, and innovation outside of the Gulf.
Abu Dhabi’s latest signing with the EU demonstrates the economic and political clout the UAE holds in EU policy circles whilst other GCC states fail to offer similar deliverables to EU partners.
Global Economy Uncertainty
Abu Dhabi’s latest announcement of trade negotiations with the European Union comes at a time of great uncertainty in the global economy as President Trump announces a 20% tariff on EU exports and respective 10% tariff on Emirati exports.
These tariffs are on pause for 90 days without a end in sight for those in business craving certainty.
Realities of Moving Poles
However, global trade is shifting eastwards. Both the EU and UAE recognise this.
The UAE’s Vision 2031 strategy is part-and-parcel of two realisations: the future economy is carbon-neutral and it will be led by those in BRICS.
Despite the closeness of U.S.-UAE ties, with President Trump’s team having close personal and business ties to Emirati officials, the U.S. is in decline.
The BRICS group have already overtaken the G7 as a share of the world’s GDP by PPP (2024) whilst Trump’s attempt to ‘tax’ industry back into the U.S. is likely to exert inflationary pressure on the U.S. economy whilst playing chicken with the world’s second largest economy: China.
Possible ramifications include hyperinflation for American consumers, domestically, whilst hammering business confidence in foreign markets, forcing governments to rethink whether trade with Washington, in the medium term, is sensible.
If anything, the latest CEPA agreement stands as a confirmation of global shifts in world trade as the UAE seeks to put its eggs in more than one basket.
Similarly, the EU recognises the rise of the BRICS and seeks to benefit from Emirati leadership on green technologies, artificial intelligence, and critical raw materials.
UAE Network-Led Foreign Policy: Europe-Africa-Asia
The GCC, specifically the UAE, has been hedging its bets since the formal shift on the global energy transition.
With hydrocarbons out of favour, as green energies are on trend, the UAE is betting on networks of maritime and logistics capabilities, green renewables, and raw materials for the transition to non-oil trade.
The Emirates is deepening it’s partnerships in Africa, using geoeconomics as a tool, for mutual gain.
Up to nine African countries, such as the CAR and Kenya, have CEPAs with Abu Dhabi whilst port investments, alongside DP World and AD Ports, are Emirati-led companies used to leverage influence in the logistics sector of Africa.
European & Emirati Interests
Together, the EU and it’s Emirati friends can benefit from each other in a multipolar age.
As multiple poles rise, the EU can leverage Emirati logistical investments in Africa, innovations in AI, and renewable technology whilst the UAE can gain from EU investment and benefit from frictionless trade on manufacturing exports to the Emirates.
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