Amid Somalia’s worsening security situation, Washington’s refusal to back peacekeeping suggests a strategic pivot towards Somaliland relations.
The United States has rejected requests to fund the African Union’s new peacekeeping mission in Somalia, delivering a devastating blow to international stabilisation efforts.
The latest decision comes at a perilous moment as Al-Shabaab militants gain ground near Mogadishu.
Washington's decision appears to stem from more than mere budget concerns. The Trump administration has cited "operational inefficiencies" and "poor burden-sharing" as justifications.
Yet the timing aligns suspiciously with warming U.S.-Somaliland ties, suggesting the rejection may form part of a broader geopolitical realignment.
Last month, some State Department officials proposed closing the embassy in Mogadishu.
Funding Crisis Threatens to Collapse AU Mission When Most Needed
The African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia, AUSSOM, faces a catastrophic $73.7 million shortfall.
With only 18.5 percent of required funding secured, the mission teeters on the brink of collapse.
A senior AU delegation flew to Washington in a last-ditch effort to secure American backing. They left empty-handed.
US officials stood firm on their refusal to fund AUSSOM unless major reforms and increased international burden-sharing materialise.
On 2 May, U.S. senators even introduced the “AUSSOM Funding Restriction Act of 2025,” attempting to legally block U.S. contributions under UN Resolution 2719.
The resolution would allow the UN to fund up to 75 percent of AU-led peace operations through assessed contributions.
“The U.S. has maintained that Somalia is not an appropriate context for the application of the 2719 framework,” notes the Security Council Report.
Washington has "opposed the hybrid implementation model, arguing that it does not reflect the spirit or intent of resolution 2719."
Al-Shabaab Resurgence Exploits Security Vacuum
The funding crisis couldn’t come at a worse time.
Al-Shabaab launched a major offensive since March, reclaiming key territories around Mogadishu that had been wrested from their control during 2022-2023 operations.
This militant resurgence has reversed many hard-won gains made by Somali forces. Al-Shabaab now controls substantial portions of southern and central Somalia, undermining prospects for the planned direct elections.
"The African Union's force level is already far too low to prevent an Al-Shabaab takeover of Mogadishu," warns Matt Bryden of Sahan Research.
“The lack of funding for the AU mission beyond June 2025 implies that it will either have to be drawn down further or terminated.”
Converging Crises: Security, Climate, and Aid
Somalia faces a perfect storm of challenges. Beyond the security crisis, climate disasters have struck with alarming frequency.
After years of devastating drought between 2020-2023, catastrophic floods displaced three million people. Now, drought conditions have returned.
Two failed crop seasons last year yielded harvests 45 percent below average. The UN projects 4.6 million Somalians will face acute food shortages by the end of June 2025.
Previous humanitarian crises were averted thanks to massive international assistance. In 2022 alone, around $2 billion in aid helped Somalia avoid famine.
Today, aid organisations have had their budgets slashed. OCHA’s $1.4 billion humanitarian response plan for Somalia has secured just 10 percent of needed funding.
"Violence and climate are really a deadly nexus in this country," explains Oxfam's Juliet Moriku Balikowa. "Now, with the aid cuts, things are becoming untenable."
The Ethiopia-Somaliland Factor
The U.S. funding rejection occurs against the backdrop of rapidly shifting regional alliances.
Tensions flared in January when Ethiopia signed a controversial maritime deal with breakaway Somaliland, offering recognition in exchange for sea access.
This agreement pushed Mogadishu closer to Ethiopia’s regional rival, Egypt. Cairo has announced it will participate in the new AU force, while Ethiopian troops are notably excluded.
Some analysts view Washington’s funding denial as tacit support for Somaliland independence aspirations. The self-declared republic has sought international recognition since 1991 but remains officially part of Somalia under international law.
Donor Fatigue or Strategic Pivot?
After nearly two decades of AU military presence in Somalia with limited lasting success, international partners show increasing reluctance to continue funding missions with unclear endpoints.
Critics argue that billions in international aid have been wasted, fuelling what observers describe as donor fatigue.
The UN and AU have agreed to cut $124.9 million from the AUSSOM budget through measures like reducing peacekeeper pay and eliminating insurance costs.
Yet the issue may run deeper than mere cost concerns. The Trump administration’s approach suggests a fundamental rethinking of U.S. engagement in the Horn of Africa.
It seems the White House is favouring bilateral relationships with stable entities like Somaliland over continued investment in fragile federal structures.
Diplomatic Embarrassment for African Solutions
The funding crisis has become a major embarrassment for the African Union.
While continental leaders have consistently called for "African solutions to African problems," the financial reality undermines this rhetoric.
The AU Peace and Security Council met in April to review the situation, followed by heads of state discussions in Kampala. Yet these meetings yielded no firm financial commitments from African nations themselves.
Somalia, despite backing the mission’s continuity, lacks the fiscal capacity to fund it independently.
The country now finds itself caught between waning Western support and insufficient regional backing.
Somalia’s Tenuous Democratic Transition
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has pledged to hold Somalia’s first one-person, one-vote election in almost 60 years. The original plan included district elections in June, state elections in November, and federal elections in May next year.
However, constitutional reforms around the election have already sparked instability.
The provinces of Puntland and Jubaland have attempted to cut ties with the federal government, with state forces clashing with federal troops.
With Al-Shabaab controlling significant territory and millions of Somalis displaced, the prospect of inclusive elections appears increasingly dubious.
One senior aid agency worker told The Independent that observers "cannot help but draw comparisons" with government collapses in Afghanistan and Syria.
The Human Cost of Policy Shifts
Behind the geopolitical manoeuvring lies an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe.
USAID programme terminations in Somalia, according to leaked documents, have ended projects worth more than $400 million.
The International Organisation for Migration reports that eight projects worth $45.6 million “have been stopped or suspended.” These initiatives previously helped more than one million people across Somalia in 2024.
“The stats coming out of the country are bad, but we expect them to get worse,” warns Balikowa.
“It means that children will die, elderly people will die, and people with disabilities will die. And when that happens, the social fabric that keeps communities together will break.”
As Somalia falls further into crisis, Washington's funding rejection may mark the end of an era in U.S.-African security cooperation.
In its place, a new approach seems to be taking shape – one that prioritises strategic partnerships with stable entities over costly nation-building exercises with uncertain outcomes.
Whether this shift proves shrewd realpolitik or tragic abandonment remains to be seen.
For millions of Somalis caught in the crossfire, the answer may come too late.
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