China stands mere steps away from unseating longtime trade king of South America.
By 2035, China might overtake the United States as Latin America’s most important trade partner, recasting the Western Hemisphere’s economic makeup. In South America, this change has already begun, with Chinese trade prowess growing yearly.
Chinese Trade Growth Opens Fresh Waterways Eastward
In South America, China has already surpassed the United States as the top trading partner. The stark numbers tell the tale: trade between China and Latin America grew 26-fold between 2000 and 2020, jumping from US$12 billion to US$315 billion. By 2023, this figure had reached US$478.9 billion.
The speed of this growth looks set to continue. Forecasts suggest China-Latin America trade will exceed US$700 billion by 2035.
Colombia offers a clear glimpse of this ongoing change. In 2024, the United States exported goods worth US$15.526 billion to Colombia, while China came close behind with US$14.768 billion. The gap between them shrank to just US$758 million.
Even more telling, imports from China to Colombia grew by 15% last year, while American imports crawled up by only 2.1%.
Belt and Road Builds New Routes Through Americas
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has become a main tool for expanding its South American foothold. Over 20 countries in the region have signed on, including Chile, Peru, and Uruguay.
The Chancay megaport in Peru serves as a flagship project that will upend traditional trade routes. This port will allow goods to flow between Latin America and Asia without passing through the Atlantic or Panama Canal.
These investments form part of China’s broader strategy to lock down raw materials needed for its economy. The main exports from Latin America to China include mineral ores (32%), oil seeds (18%), and fossil fuels (12%).
Meanwhile, Chinese exports to the region focus on electrical machinery (23%), other machinery (14%), and motor vehicles (8%).
US Stance Hardens While Old Doctrine Falters
The Trump administration’s hard-line handling of Latin America may work against American interests in the region. During Trump’s first term (2017-2021), his tough policies drove some Latin American governments closer to China.
The pattern seems to be repeating. Since taking office in January 2025, the Trump administration has taken steps many Latin American countries see as unfriendly, including threatening to cut off foreign aid programs and imposing new tariffs.
These moves run counter to the centuries-old Monroe Doctrine, which sought to block outside powers from gaining footholds in the Americas. The doctrine’s grip has weakened as China has stepped up its economic and political engagement.
Despite some small wins, like Panama’s withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative, signs point to continued growth in China-Latin American bonds.
European Stance Offers Third Way Forward
Across the Atlantic, Europe watches this power struggle with keen interest. The EU, now Latin America’s third largest trading partner with a 10.7% share, seeks to boost its own bonds with the region.
Many Latin Americans view Europe warmly. A 2021 survey across ten Latin American countries found that 48% believed Europe would be the world region their country would benefit most from having links with. North America ranked second at 19%.
Europeans hold strong cards in fields like the environment, human rights, and humanitarian aid. Yet they lag behind in areas such as science, technology, and economic power.
The EU-Mercosur partnership agreement, now awaiting European Parliament approval, will test Europe’s commitment to deeper Latin American ties.
Crossroads Ahead for South American Nations
South American countries now inch along between these three major powers. Each offers both risks and rewards.
Some scholars, like Juan Andrés Gascón Maldonado, break down views on China’s role into three camps: “Sino-optimism” seeing China as a development engine, “Sino-pessimism” fearing new forms of dependency, and “Sino-skepticism” taking a middle ground.
The optimistic view notes how Chinese trade helps South American nations cut their historical reliance on Western markets. The pessimistic outlook warns that most Chinese investment targets raw materials, creating an old pattern with a new player.
For now, raw materials flow east while manufactured goods flow west. This trade makeup brings back old worries about one-sided growth.
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