A Changed Politician: Milorad Dodik
20 years ago, the public’s opinion of Bosnia’s Milorad Dodik couldn’t be more different. Milorad Dodik was once described as “a breath of fresh air” in Washington.
Dodik was seen as an moderate reformist and an anti-nationalist; he was perceived as a voice of reason that Bosnia and Herzegovina desperately needed in the aftermath of the violence, conflict, and brutal ethnic cleansing of the 1990s.
Unfortunately, it didn’t last.
Ethno-Nationalism: Milorad Dodik
Currently, Dodik faces accusations of attacking the country’s constitutional order.
In late February 2025, a court sentenced Dodik to a year in jail after he tried to suspend rulings by Bosnia’s constitutional court.
In the post war period, Bosnia and Herzegovina was divided into two autonomous entities, the Serbian majority Republika Srpska, and the Bosniak-Croat Federation, with both states operating under a federal government.
Dodik’s attempt to prevent federal rule of law in Republika Srpska undermines the constitutional and political unity of the country.
The Case Against Dodik
In the 1990s, amid turmoil in the Balkan region, Dodik stood out as a moderate, antinationalist leader.
His moderate and reformist views even garnered support from Western nations, who at the time viewed him as a potential catalyst for democratic reforms in the region.
After losing the presidential election in the Serbian region of the country, Republika Srpska, in 2001, Dodik changed course drastically, instead promoting himself as a Serbian nationalist and secessionist.
Dodik managed to gain control of all levels of the regional government, and even managed to expel foreign judges and prosecutors from the court system while he was under investigation for corruption.
European Support: Dodik’s Allies
Dodik maintains close ties with Hungary’s Victor Orban and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, as well as Moscow.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban claimed on the social media platform X after the recent verdict that the legal actions against Dodik were a “witch hunt” and an attack against “a democratically elected leader”.
In late February 2025, Dodik was condemned for blocking the decisions of Christian Schmidt, the international High Representative who is responsible for overseeing the implementation of the Dayton Agreement, the accord that ended the Bosnian War in 1995.
The representative is the supreme authority in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the ability to impose or annul laws and sack officials who do not respect the 1995 accords. Dodik’s conviction has changed little thus far; Dodik insists that he will not appeal.
However, Dodik’s actions will have consequences far beyond Republika Srpska and Bosnia’s borders as key players, like the U.S. and the UK, impose sanctions on secessionist leaders from the region.
Consequences : A Return to Balkanisation?
Dodik’s actions could have grave consequences for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s future. Dodik has tried to undermine the country’s constitution as well as its institutions and rule of law. His actions have been condemned by NATO, which supports the country’s territorial integrity.
Dodik’s attempts to undermine the country’s stability may also inspire similar attempts in the surrounding countries, undoing hard-won peace in the region and impeding Bosnia’s eligibility for EU membership.
If Dodik’s actions go unchecked, Bosnia and Herzegovina will run the risk not only of political fragmentation but also a swift return to the instability that once tore the Balkans apart—threatening both its future and the fragile peace of the region.
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