In recent years, Belarus has been actively developing cooperation with the Syrian group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which has caused concern on the international stage.
However, in recent months, there has been a change in its political position, which has attracted the attention of the Belarusian authorities.
Evolution of HTS
HTS was founded in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra and was initially an affiliate of al-Qaeda. In 2016, HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani severed ties with al-Qaeda and renamed the organisation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Since then, HTS has been actively involved in the Syrian conflict, seeking to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad
Changes in HTS’s Political Position
HTS continues to indicate signs of moderation in its political position. The organisation’s leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, announced his intention to disband the Islamist militia and hold elections, indicating a desire for a political settlement in Syria.
Yesterday, Ahmed al-Sharaa announced the dissolution of HTS and formation of a transitional political process in Syria, in the next four years, under his leadership.
Prospects for Belarusian-Russian Cooperation
Belarus and Russia have traditionally maintained close strategic ties, including cooperation in the Syrian conflict. Russia provided military support and political cover to the Bashar al-Assad regime, while Belarus was actively involved in economic cooperation, including the restoration of Syrian infrastructure and the supply of military equipment.
However, the recent fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 significantly changed the dynamics of the Syrian conflict and the geopolitical environment. This event had an impact on Russia’s interests in the region as the fall of the Assad regime is seen as a serious blow to Russia’s strategic goals in Syria.
In response to the changed situation, Belarus withdrew its diplomatic staff from Syria on 15 December 2024. On 23 January 2025, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov visited Syria and met with de facto President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, reaffirming Belarus’ support for Syria’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.
Reports of Russia’s Withdrawal
As reports emerge of Russia’s withdrawal of troops and maritime equipment onboard Spartus, analysts suggest that Russia may be gearing up for a full-scale withdrawal and relocation from Syria to Libya. Should such plans materialise, Belarus will have to navigate its relationship with the Kremlin whilst maintaining dialogue with the Turkish-aligned HTS in Damascus.
Under such conditions, Lukashenko will have to tread carefully if Minsk seeks to develop relations with Damascus’ new leadership. Lots will depend on the path HTS takes in Syria and whether Türkiye continues to consolidate influence amidst a ‘Russia and U.S. withdrawal’.
Stay tuned to Daily Euro Times for the latest insights!
Explore more articles:
Tech Titans: The US-China Rivalry Shaping Our Future
Water Wars: American Corporations Buying Up Canada’s Water
From Hollywood to the Garage: the Role of Content Creators
