EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a package earlier this month reshaping the defence of Europe.
The Commission President claimed she could mobilise €800 billion in defence spending. This initiative, dubbed ReArm Europe, aims to strengthen Europe’s defence capacities in the face of increasing security threats, particularly the U.S. cutting of aid to Ukraine.
Von der Leyen said of the project that Europe is reentering “an era of rearmament”, speaking principally of Russian aggression in Ukraine and Eastern Europe.
Self-Sufficiency: Europe Steps Up
The European Union plans to reduce reliance on external allies and develop more self sufficient defence capabilities.
As part of the plan, the European Investment Bank, said it would lift existing limits for defence projects and expand the scope of what is eligible for funding. However, a ban on financing weapons and ammunition will remain.
The European Commission also presented proposals to borrow up to €150bn, going towards air defence, missiles, and drones, as part of the package of proposals.
Rather than providing new EU finance, this package will focus on reallocating existing funds towards defence. The package did not include a proposal for joint borrowing for grants, although member states such as the Baltics and France are in favour of such initiatives.
Russian Military-Industrial Complex
According to Bruegel and the Kiel Institute, two European reputable research institutes, Europe will need to be capable of defending itself against Russian attacks, with(-out) U.S. assistance.
Russia, although it has suffered costly losses during the conflict in Ukraine, has been able to mobilise society and industry, and has a military that is now larger and more experienced than previous years.
Although the country relies to a large extent on modernised Soviet-era equipment, defence production in Russia will continue even after this stockpile is exhausted. As such, an attack on a European Union country is conceivable.
Europe’s Future: Independent Security Policy
Amid uncertainty regarding continued U.S. military support for NATO and Ukraine, important steps must be taken for European security and defence. This could be a pivotal moment for the European Union to develop defence capacities and to ward off future aggression.
While some European countries, such as France, Poland, and Britain, have the ability to fill the U.S. security void; Europe must develop their own independent security policy.
European Defence Capacity Rebooted
While France technically has the capacity to deter Russia or other aggressors on its own, the French forces are what is described as a “bonsai-sized” military. In other words, France has a complete system albeit scaled down, similar to other European countries.
Since the end of the Cold War, many European armed forces have effectively functioned as auxiliaries to U.S forces. U.S. withdrawal from Europe and NATO will require a total overhaul of these practices and development of autonomous securities capabilities.
Convincing all member states to align with this initiative could prove difficult.
The complex financing structure of this initiative, which includes EIB loans, national budgets of member states, and private sector investment may be a logistical challenge. This could be a turning point for the EU, if they are able to pull it off.
If initiatives like these are successful, they could be the start of a Europe that can stand on it’s own two feet without U.S. oversight.
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