Canada and the United Arab Emirates have signed a trade pact in Ottawa after a record 47 days of talks. Once in force, expected in 2027, it will cut or remove tariffs on over 99% of current Canadian exports to the Gulf.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to double trade with partners outside the United States within a decade, and Washington’s tariffs gave the pledge urgency.
A Record Pact Built on Trust
The speed owes much to Carney’s visit to Abu Dhabi last November, where the Emirates announced a 70 billion Canadian dollar investment commitment and signed an investment protection agreement. Ottawa gains its largest export market in the Middle East, and Abu Dhabi gains a dependable northern source of industrial goods, farm produce and engineering services.
Trade minister Maninder Sidhu expects two-way trade to climb to 7 billion Canadian dollars within a decade, twice today’s level. Such growth looks ambitious and plausible for a partner already investing in Canadian energy, infrastructure and technology.
Carney summed up the mood with the words “The UAE and Canada are building big.” But the optimism needs tempering. Parliament must still ratify the text, so the benefits will probably appear in trade statistics only after 2027.
The terms let each side defend the bargain at home, a fairness durable trade relationships demand.
Why Britain Declined Canada’s Bank
Defence finance prizes predictability too, and there Canada has met resistance. Britain has declined to join the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank after a summer of talks over merging it with London’s Multilateral Defence Mechanism.
According to reports, London pressed for a European headquarters and a procurement mandate, and Ottawa refused. Britain will pursue its own mechanism, which reportedly carries an initial £400 million commitment. The two governments describe the institutions as “distinct but complementary.”
Defence Secretary Wes Streeting had called the bank a “really interesting and innovative mechanism,” so the refusal looks like a verdict on structure that leaves the friendship intact. Germany has also stayed away. Prospective members have asked if the bank can lend more cheaply than highly rated governments, a fair question its planned AAA rating must answer.
Nine founding backers still plan to sign the charter in Luxembourg on 30 November, which gives the project a European hub despite London’s absence. Canada’s other European partnerships look sturdier.
Ottawa has joined the European Union’s Security Action for Europe fund, worth €150 billion, as the first non-European country. A Montreal firm has already won a contract to deliver tactical radios to Poland’s military.
Trump’s Shifting Tone on Quebec
Canada’s search for steadier partners gains urgency from Washington’s own mixed messages. Trump’s trade language has recently softened. His top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says a deal is “very close,” days after the White House imposed tariffs on some Canadian goods and dropped others.
But the warmth has limits. Trump congratulated Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the Parti Québécois leader who won Quebec’s election, weeks after the vote. He also shared an article portraying the result as a setback for Carney’s efforts to preserve unity. Washington has also accused Canada of trying to affect American elections through retaliatory tariffs, which Ottawa denies. Such charges chill the goodwill months of negotiation have built.
Applause for a movement seeking Quebec’s independence undercuts the friendly talk on tariffs. Canadians may reasonably prefer partners whose words and actions agree.
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