Canada’s new security pact with the European Union signals what many Europeans have known for months but been reluctant to admit: the transatlantic alliance, as we know it, is dying. The real question now is whether Europe will grab the steering wheel before the entire NATO project crashes into irrelevance.
When Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signed his country’s defence partnership with Brussels this week, he wasn’t just hedging against Trump’s annexation threats; he was betting on Europe’s future as a military power.
Washington’s Retreat Opens European Doors
For seventy-five years, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation has operated under one simple rule: America leads, Europe follows.
Every Supreme Allied Commander Europe has been American. Every major decision has flowed through Washington. Every critical capability has depended on U.S. approval.
This arrangement once made sense. In 1949, Europe lay in ruins while America stood as the sole intact superpower.
Today, Europe’s combined economic output dwarfs Russia’s. Its armed forces, while fragmented, receive growing investment. Its industrial base, though dispersed, possesses the technology to compete.
Meanwhile, America pivots toward the Pacific. A bipartisan consensus in Washington views China, not Russia, as the primary long-term threat.
Trump's "America First" movement has made European defence a secondary concern at best.
The numbers tell the story. Since Trump halted U.S. aid to Ukraine in January, European countries have stepped up dramatically. For the first time since 2022, Europe now provides more military assistance to Kyiv than America does.
Europe’s Defence Revolution Gains Speed
At next week’s NATO summit in The Hague, allies will commit to spending five percent of GDP on defence. Nordic countries already exceed this target. Poland races toward it.
Even traditionally reluctant nations like Germany face mounting pressure to match their neighbours’ commitment.
Canada’s partnership with the EU’s ReArm initiative shows how this works in practice. Ottawa gains access to Europe’s €150 billion Security Action for Europe programme.
European defence contractors secure new markets and partnerships. Both sides reduce their dependence on American suppliers and approval processes.
France has already opened a new consulate in Nuuk, Greenland’s capital. President Macron promises joint military exercises, hydroelectric projects, and mining partnerships.
His message to Trump was diplomatically phrased but unmistakably clear: Europe will defend European territory.
Behind closed doors, European leaders go further. As one Guardian columnist notes, they must "hijack NATO for their own purposes." This means using the alliance's command structures and decades of operational experience to prepare for a world where America plays a smaller role.
The Counterargument Misses the Point
Critics argue that Europe lacks the experience to lead NATO. No European general has commanded forces at the scale required for Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
Nuclear deterrence depends on American credibility. Legal complexities prevent European officers from commanding U.S. troops.
Each concern has merit. None proves insurmountable.
American forces have served under non-American commanders in UN missions, NATO operations in Kosovo and Afghanistan, and EU deployments in the Balkans.
Hybrid command structures can preserve U.S. control over nuclear weapons while granting Europeans operational leadership. As for experience, European officers will only gain it by taking responsibility.
Europeans Must Act Before America Acts for Them
The real obstacle isn’t capability but political will.
For decades, European leaders have preferred American leadership because it spared them difficult decisions and guaranteed U.S. involvement. That comfort zone no longer exists.
Trump’s threats to withdraw from NATO aren’t empty bluster. His administration already considered relinquishing the Supreme Allied Commander Europe position.
Only European lobbying prevented immediate change. Such reprieve won’t last forever.
Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto states bluntly that "NATO as it is no longer has a reason to exist." He's right, though not for the reasons he intended.
The alliance’s Cold War structure cannot meet 21st-century challenges. Europe must either reform NATO or watch it crumble.
A Partnership of Equals Serves Everyone
Properly managed, Europe’s rise as a defence power benefits the United States. Washington gains reliable allies capable of defending themselves.
America can focus resources on the Pacific while maintaining nuclear deterrence in Europe. The alliance becomes more sustainable, not weaker.
This transition need not happen overnight. The next Supreme Allied Commander Europe could be European, with an American deputy retaining control over U.S. forces and nuclear weapons.
Joint exercises could test new command arrangements. Defence industrial partnerships could reduce dependence on American suppliers.
Europeans support such changes. Eurobarometer data shows 74 percent view EU membership positively, the highest level ever recorded.
They understand that small nations cannot withstand pressure from Washington and Moscow simultaneously.
The question isn’t whether Europeans are ready to lead their own defence. Public opinion polls show they are.
The question is whether their leaders will act on that mandate before circumstances force their hand.
Canada: The First, But Not the Last
Canada’s partnership with Europe points the way forward. Other nations will follow suit as American reliability continues to decline.
Those who move first will define the new security architecture. Those who hesitate will find themselves left behind.
European defence integration isn’t inevitable. It requires political courage, industrial investment, and military reform. The alternative, however, offers no security at all.
The time for comfortable dependence has passed. The era of European responsibility has begun.
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