Operation Rising Lion
The direct confrontation, codenamed ‘Operation Rising Lion‘, between Israel and Iran marks a historic rupture in regional warfare dynamics.
Israeli strikes were framed as a pre-emptive move to neutralise Iran’s nuclear program. Public statements from Israeli officials emphasised disrupting enrichment efforts at key sites like Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow.
Nuclear Facilities In-Tact
However, despite some confirmed damage, Fordow remains intact due to its fortified underground structure — prompting broad acknowledgment that Israel lacks the military capability to destroy such a facility without U.S. assistance. While Israel has yet to completely degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, it has successfully decapitated key military and intelligence leadership.
The IDF also extended the campaign to civilian and industrial targets, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of civilians, including aid workers.
On 16 June, an Israeli airstrike hit a Red Crescent ambulance in Tehran, killing two aid workers: a stark example of the growing toll on humanitarian responders.
Similarly, some Iranian strikes successfully evade Israeli air defence and impact on Israeli territory, though most have been intercepted.
ACLED records dozens of successful missile impact events, including strikes on urban infrastructure in Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Eilat.
Iran’s War Game
Iran’s strategy appears phased and defensive-offensive: conserving some missile capacity for deterrence, avoiding direct U.S. escalation, whilst ensuring strikes carry symbolic and infrastructural weight.
At the same time, early data suggests Iran’s launch rate has declined, likely due to Israeli targeting of missile launch infrastructure.
Statements by Iranian officials suggest Tehran is balancing retaliation with diplomatic positioning, holding capacity in reserve to preserve leverage.
Clionadh Raleigh, President & CEO of ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) said:
“What comes next remains precarious: Israel continues to expand its target list beyond nuclear and military facilities to economic lifelines like South Pars gas fields.
Iran, while signaling restraint, has not ruled out a broader escalation.
U.S. involvement remains the critical variable — Israel’s ability to achieve its maximalist war aims depends on Washington’s decision to provide advanced strike capabilities.
For now, the region braces for further volatility, with diplomacy hanging by a thread and international actors scrambling to prevent a broader conflagration.”
Explore related articles at DET!
Check Mate: Trump, the Anti-Iran Coalition, and Houthi Aggression
Israel-Palestine: Obstacles to Peace
Under Review: Israel’s Largest Trading Partner Second Guessing Relations
