In September, twelve fighter jets crossed Saudi airspace to bomb Doha, targeting a residential compound hosting ceasefire negotiators.
Six people were killed, including a Qatari security official. Days later, Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan, declaring any attack on either nation as an attack on both.
Qatar hosts the important Al Udeid Air Base with thousands of American troops present, heightening regional concerns after the attack. The U.S. chose not to retaliate militarily, recalling its restraint after Iran’s assault on Saudi oil facilities in 2019. Pakistan has trained over 8,000 Saudi military personnel since 1967, adding weight to their alliance.
Although the Pakistani Defence Minister initially hinted at a nuclear umbrella, those remarks were later withdrawn. A senior Saudi official confirmed that the defense pact covers all military methods. Riyadh notified Washington about the pact only after its signing, reflecting evolving regional defense strategies.
Growth of India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor connects Mumbai to European ports through Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel, established during the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi.
Transporters stand to reduce shipping times by 40 percent compared to maritime routes. The corridor traverses areas with instability that threatens investment flows. France and Italy vied for the European terminus, while Greece promoted Piraeus and Thessaloniki as entry points.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi renewed their commitment to making the corridor operational during her 2025 visit to India.
Qatar’s Energy Role and European Dependence
Qatar supplied Europe with 783 million cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in July 2024. Countries like France, Italy, and Belgium depend on Qatari LNG for energy needs.
In 2023, Qatar accounted for 14 percent of European LNG imports and plans to expand its production from 77 million tonnes annually to 126 million tonnes by 2027 via the North Field Expansion. European utilities have contracts for 12 million tonnes per year, expiring by 2030.
The attack on Doha endangered these commercial ties. President Trump criticised the strike and quickly focused U.S. diplomatic pressure on Netanyahu to accept ceasefire terms, with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff pressuring Bibi to stick to the ceasefire.
European Nations’ Recognition of Palestine
Several European nations, including France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, and Andorra, recognised Palestine in a New York summit.
The UK, Canada, Australia, and Portugal issued similar declarations the day before.
French President Emmanuel Macron co-hosted the event with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan. They proposed reforming the Palestinian Authority to replace Hamas’s control in Gaza.
Currently, 15 EU member states recognise Palestine, covering 81 percent of UN members. Macron framed this as support for Palestinian leaders pursuing dialogue instead of violence. European capitals prepare for engagement with emerging Palestinian leadership structures.
The Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations
President Trump played a vital role in peace talks. After urging Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar for the strike, Trump revealed a detailed 20-point peace plan on 29 September.
Netanyahu offered an apology during a trilateral call with Trump and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Israel and Hamas agreed to the ceasefire’s first phase on 9 October, with its official start on 10 October.
Qatar was a key mediator throughout negotiations. The U.S. administration repeatedly turned to Doha after other mediators failed. Soon after, the U.S., France, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey released a joint commitment to lasting peace and human rights for Palestinians and Israelis.
Linked Interests in Energy, Trade, and Security
Europe’s energy needs rely on multiple suppliers, with Qatar among the main providers. The economic corridor requires peaceful transit through the Middle East. Conflicts halted many infrastructure projects throughout 2025.
Gulf nations pursue regional alliances to reduce dependence on global powers. Pakistan provides Saudi Arabia with military support, and Saudi Arabia offers financial resources. India’s expanding consumer market increases demand for improved connections to Europe, overcoming longstanding restrictions on overland routes westward.
France’s recognition of Palestine prepares European countries to engage with future Palestinian governance. The Gaza ceasefire stabilises conditions for billions of dollars in infrastructure investments, with European investors seeking reduced political risks and a role in training, development, and governance.
Trade and economic interests are increasingly influencing political decisions. Geographic realities continue directing economic and strategic choices amid global supply chain realignments.
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