Tigrayan forces seized Mekelle airport overnight, and Ethiopian Airlines promptly grounded flights to three northern cities. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front had formed an alliance with six other armed groups to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and the raid gave the coalition military teeth. The war between Tigray and Addis Ababa ended four years ago with the Pretoria agreement after killing some 600,000 people, according to African Union estimates. Across the water, Houthi fighters hold Mocha, Perim island and the Hanish archipelago, so Bab al-Mandeb has become Europe’s second chokepoint crisis after Hormuz.
Houthi positions lie roughly 20 kilometres from the African coast, and Ethiopia’s unravelling welds the Yemeni and African shores into one emergency. Brussels is poorly equipped to manage it.
Rome Sails Ahead of Brussels
The first European response is a solo mission. Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto declared Rome would not wait for a joint European Union decision, insisting “We have the capabilities to protect the passage.”
Italian shipowners say around 40% of the country’s trade with the wider world passes through the Suez Canal, so Rome’s impatience is easy to understand. The frigate Carlo Bergamini already escorts merchant vessels under the EU’s Operation Aspides, but a lone warship cannot police Bab al-Mandeb, whose Yemeni shore the Houthis control. Fragmented flags invite fragmented rules of engagement, and Brussels should treat Crosetto’s frustration as a rebuke.
London Lends Wings to Riyadh
London has echoed Rome’s urgency in response to a direct Saudi request. The United Kingdom will provide a Royal Air Force Voyager tanker flying from Cyprus for air-to-air refuelling, Defence Minister Luke Pollard said. Saudi Arabia had asked for help against intensifying Houthi drone and missile strikes.
American officials privately doubt Washington’s added intelligence and targeting support can push the Houthis back. Saudi Arabia had diverted up to 64% of its oil exports through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, and drone strikes have damaged pumping stations along it. Bab al-Mandeb thus remains one of the few open outlets for Gulf crude. Air refuelling prolongs a campaign and leaves the negotiating table empty.
Refugee Boats Cross the Strait
The war’s human toll already crosses the water in small boats. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees warned more than 130,000 people have fled their homes in Yemen and some 3,000 have found shelter in Djibouti. Those totals could climb to 230,000 and 10,000 in the coming months.
The International Organization for Migration has begun recording Ethiopian migrants among those crossing, and Tigray counts around one million people without a home to return to. A renewed war would add Ethiopian families to the Yemeni flow meeting at Djibouti, which has modest means to host them. Brussels knows how swiftly boats turn into domestic politics, so early funding for reception in Djibouti spares Europe an improvised scramble.
Diesel Pumps Feel the Squeeze
The slower threat is refugee boats, because Europe’s bills appear in freight rates and pump prices well before any boat nears Lampedusa. Bab al-Mandeb handles roughly 12% of global trade, including 11% of maritime oil and 8% of liquefied natural gas, and crude has climbed above $100 a barrel. International Monetary Fund PortWatch data recorded a drop of 50% to 55% in Red Sea traffic across the two years to last year, so shippers carry scar tissue.
Container lines have started restoring Suez capacity, but Asia-Mediterranean rates remain more than 50% above their mid-May levels, and Asia-North Europe rates stay more than 20% higher. French fishermen recently blocked the port of Nice over diesel prices, and Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is drafting a 2027 budget needing around €54 billion in savings. Every extra week of Houthi leverage inflates such bills and hardens public patience into anger.
Collective Escort and Diplomacy
Taken together, these facts give Bab al-Mandeb a rank beside Hormuz, and Europe cannot answer with separate deployments by individual capitals. Rome’s frigates belong inside a properly funded Aspides mission, with London coordinating its air support alongside it. Brussels should also finance reception capacity in Djibouti through United Nations agencies.
Diplomacy warrants equal urgency. Muscat has hosted talks where Houthi delegates told American officials they do not intend to attack Israeli or American ships, and the Muscat channel is worth widening toward Riyadh. The AU should press to revive the Pretoria agreement before Tigray’s alliance turns airports into front lines.
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