Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now deep into its third year, is no longer following the trajectory Moscow once envisioned.
The tide has turned. Ukraine, once outgunned and underestimated, continues to defy the odds amid shifting global momentum.
Germany’s recent decision to lift all restrictions on weapon types to Ukraine, specifically target range, marks a significant escalation in the West’s commitment to Kyiv’s defence.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that Germany, alongside the UK, France, and the U..S, removed limitations on a range of weapons delivered to Ukraine, enabling strikes on military targets far within Russian territory.
The West no longer aims to help Ukraine survive, but win the war against Russia.
The idea of Russia achieving a decisive military victory now looks unlikely. Its forces remain bogged down, morale is weak, and sanctions continue to choke the economy.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic landscape has turned frostier for Putin with Trump growing impatience at Russia’s manipulation of the president.
Trump’s Break with Putin Signals Growing Resolve on Ukraine
U.S. President Donald Trump, once a ‘voice of understanding’ toward Moscow, has grown colder.
This shift matters. Trump labelled Putin “absolutely crazy” following a wave of Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, accusing him of “playing with fire.”
Whether one supports Trump or not, his tone signals a key change. Even in America’s polarised politics, support for Ukraine remains firm.
This “refrozen” Trump-Putin dynamic strips Russia of one of its last hopes: American disengagement.
Instead of softening, the U.S. may soon introduce harsher sanctions.
The idea that a Trump presidency would rescue Russia from isolation now looks far-fetched.
Russian Internal Pressure
At the same time, Russia faces mounting internal pressures.
Sanctions continue to limit access to critical technology and international markets. Military casualties and economic strain increase, while Ukrainian drone strikes have reached deeper into Russian territory than at any point in the conflict.
Ukraine, for its part, maintains a clear goal: restoration of full territorial integrity to the borders, preceding the de facto annexation of Crimea in 2014.
With Western support more entrenched and new arms capabilities arriving, Ukraine holds a strong negotiating position.
Putin’s Paradox of his Own Making
Putin knows he miscalculated.
The Russian leader now finds himself trapped in a war that’s draining his resources, his global influence, and his legacy.
A expanded NATO, a stronger Ukrainian identity, and a rearmed West.
There is no viable exit. Victory is off the table, yet retreat would shatter his image domestically.
Even a temporary ceasefire wouldn’t alter the broader dynamic. Ukraine continues to consolidate support, while Russia faces increasing strain.
The conclusion is increasingly clear.
Russia no longer appears focused on victory, but rather on managing the consequences of a prolonged conflict: a difficult position for any nation whose leader has hedged his bets on annexing all of Ukraine.
However long it continues, this war will ultimately serve as a cautionary tale of strategic overreach and misjudged ambition for Putin’s Russia.
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