The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria in December 2024 signalled significant changes in the country’s political and economic situation. One of the most visible consequences was the cessation of the production and trade of Captagon, a powerful amphetamine-like drug that significantly financed the Assad regime.
The shift in Syria’s drug trade highlights the immense challenges the new Syrian leadership faces in rebuilding the war-torn country.
Captagon: The Drug That Sustains the Regime
Captagon, a synthetic stimulant, is widely used in Syria to enhance the fighting ability of soldiers and to generate revenue for the government.
According to the World Bank, the annual illegal trade in Captagon from Syria was estimated at $5.6 billion (USD), surpassing even the revenue generated by traditional exports like oil and agricultural products. The drug became a cornerstone of Assad’s financial and military strategy, often produced in clandestine labs and distributed across the Middle East, with millions of pills reaching markets in neighboring countries namely Jordan, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia.
The Captagon trade provided a crucial financial lifeline for the regime, particularly during the years of international sanctions and civil war. Trade helped fund the Syrian military and pro-regime militias, ensuring their loyalty and operational capacity, in turn entrenching the shadow economy as a backbone of the regime.
The Economic Consequences: A Bleak Future Ahead
Whilst the removal of Assad may prompt celebrations across Syria, its removal rebounds across the national and regional political economy. The World Bank estimated Syria’s gross national product in 2021 at $8.9 billion, a decline from $60.04 billion in 2010, in turn highlighting the disproportionate reliance on ‘illicit’ revenue streams as a means of propping up the regime.
The difficulty of rebuilding infrastructure, including destroyed drug factories and laboratories, will require significant investment in the short-run to makeup for the opportunity cost of Assad’s removal and with it Captagon.
Syria’s economy is already in a fragile state. The challenge of rebuilding the country is compounded by the limited resources available, as international aid flows have been inconsistent and the country’s isolation has kept many foreign investors at bay. The government’s ability to attract foreign investment will depend on its success in stabilising the country by addressing issues such as security, governance, and the ongoing presence of various armed militias.
The fall of Assad marks the end of an era for the Syrian drug trade, particularly the production of Captagon. While the elimination of this lucrative industry may seem like a victory in the fight against illicit drugs, it has created a vacuum that could slow Syria’s economic recovery and disrupt regional drug markets.
The future of Syria’s economy and its role in the global drug trade will depend on the new government’s ability to stabilise the country, for all Syrians, and rebuild its economic infrastructure. The path ahead is uncertain, but it offers both challenges and opportunities for Syria and the broader Middle East free of Captagon.
