Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reached Abu Dhabi on 4 February to manage a pair of tasks. The presidential envoys spent their hours negotiating an end to the fighting between Moscow and Kyiv and also discussed how the two powers might keep a lid on atomic weapons after the New START treaty expired on Thursday.
Such a meeting portrays a new style of statesmanship where diplomacy now moves on tracks where ending a regional war is part of the same puzzle as managing the global atomic stockpile.
Trading Warheads for Withdrawal
Working on the outskirts of the Ukraine talks Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner pushed for a new nuclear deal with their Russian counterparts. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, agreed on Friday that both sides see the need for new arms control talks.
Washington wants Beijing in the room and Moscow prefers a three way pact that would account for NATO weapons as well. China is holding back until its arsenal grows enough to match the major powers.
The expiration of New START ended the limits on the world biggest nuclear piles for the first time in over half a century. The U.S. and Russia agreed to start military talks again after a meeting in Abu Dhabi according to the US European Command announcement.
Military links had been inactive since the end of 2021 before the invasion began. This restoration of communication is a necessary step to prevent further escalation.
Nuclear Leverage in Peacetime
The overlap between the talks was heavy as Washington negotiated a quiet deal to keep warheads at 1,550 for now. Russia pushed for a written deal even as Peskov said he was sorry the treaty ended.
The meetings produced an exchange of 314 people which was the first such swap in four months. Rustem Umerov called the work productive and the negotiators used a style of three way groups and specialised teams.
Witkoff stated the prisoner swap came from detailed work and added that staying at the table brings an actual payoff. The successful exchange serves as a small sign of progress in an otherwise frozen conflict.
The China Question
Washington focus on Beijing is rooted in a world where the old nuclear ways have been replaced by a more crowded field. China owns roughly 600 warheads today and might have 1,000 by 2030.
Thomas DiNanno said in Geneva that a world with many nuclear powers makes two way treaties a relic of the past. Lin Jian said the Chinese army is too small to join and told the big powers to fix their own problems first.
The logic allows Moscow to act as a cooperative nuclear partner to gain ground on its territorial demands as Washington tries to cap the bombs and holds its ground on the battlefield.
Beijing watches as its pile grows without anyone stopping it. This triangulation creates a complex environment where every move is watched by a silent third player.
Territorial Disputes and Atomic Stockpiles
The Abu Dhabi talks dealt with a map frozen by the ground war. Moscow wants Ukraine to leave all of the Donetsk region as Kyiv is holding firm on the current lines.
The Zaporizhzhia plant is a major hurdle after being held by Russia since March 2022. Both governments say the facility is in danger because of reckless activity nearby.
Washington proposed that Kyiv, Moscow, and the U.S. run the plant together with the IAEA watching, but President Zelenskyy is holding out for a U.S. Ukrainian company to run it instead.
Weapons as Bargaining Chips
Linking the talks will define how Europe stays safe and the agreement to restart military lines is a big step for powers that own 85 per cent of the world’s bombs.
Fighting is still happening in Ukraine where Moscow recently hit the Sumy region with drones. Oleksiy Kuleba called the strikes a way to break the country’s travel links.
The contrast between the calm rooms in the Emirates and the sirens in Sumy highlights the distance between diplomatic goals and the reality of the front lines.
Trends from the Past Repeating
The talks bring up memories of 1991 at the time Ukraine held the third largest nuclear pile in the world. By 1996 Kyiv gave those bombs to Russia in exchange for safety promises that eventually proved hollow.
The memory colours how everyone talks about the future. Zelenskyy stated his people need a peace that stops any future tricks from Moscow and he is sceptical because of recent drone strikes on the power grid.
The New Nuclear Arithmetic
Arms control is being reshaped by the cold realities of new power forces and DiNanno accused Beijing of masking its nuclear tests to avoid international scrutiny.
Such claims made the friction of the instant worse as the old limits on American and Russian weapons died. The lack of rules lets Moscow and Washington add missiles and warheads and although it will take time the way is open.
What Abu Dhabi Teaches
The venue held an effort to settle a war and managed the world’s most deadly bombs. Both sides acted on the hard arithmetic of national survival and Moscow uses the power plant to pressure Kyiv and Europe.
Washington is attempting to balance a set of competing goals that often work against each other. The talks testify to how powers handle a crisis by weaving territorial disputes into the fabric of global security.
The future is unknown but Witkoff admitted the swaps are only a start and hard work remains. The coming weeks will unveil if the strategy is fruitful.
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