Russia exploits Europe’s Eastern Mediterranean disputes to weaponise migration flows against Western support for Ukraine.
The recent Libya-Greece maritime boundary clash offers Moscow new opportunities to pressure European governments through their most sensitive domestic political weakness.
Libya’s Maritime Protests Spell Trouble for Europe
Libya’s protest to the United Nations over Greek maritime boundaries represents more than a regional squabble about oil and gas rights. Moscow watches these disputes with great interest, knowing that European vulnerability on migration gives Russia powerful tools to pressure the West over Ukraine.
Libya has issued a formal diplomatic protest to the United Nations, directly challenging Greece’s maritime boundary claims south and west of Crete. Before 2024, Libya had remained relatively quiet about Greek maritime delimitations.
Turkish naval patrols have increased around the contested waters. Ankara has expanded energy cooperation with Libya under a maritime agreement signed in late 2024.
Energy Wars Turn into Migration Crises
The Eastern Mediterranean’s energy reserves attract outside powers seeking leverage. Russia understands that the ongoing dispute directly involves Türkeye, Greece, and Cyprus.
Each energy project suspended or cancelled weakens European unity. When Greece suspended the planned Great Sea Interconnector in March 2025 due to Türkeye’s objections, European energy security suffered another blow.
Similarly, the EastMed Gas pipeline, which was meant to connect Greece and Cyprus with Israel and Egypt through the disputed waters, has run into persistent problems. European energy security suffers every time these projects stall or get cancelled.
Migration Flows Follow Political Pressure
Russia’s hybrid warfare toolkit includes what experts call strategically engineered migration. Moscow knows that migration ranks as Europe’s most sensitive domestic political topic.
The numbers tell the story clearly. Despite falling total migration figures, irregular migration crossings along the borders from Belarus and Russia jumped 192 percent in 2024.
When regional disputes flare up in Libya, migration flows increase, and European governments scramble to respond. The connection between regional instability and migration flows plays right into Russia’s hands.
Why Moscow Sees Migration as Gold
Russia’s strategy banks on European political weakness. Putin believes victory in Kyiv would start the process of dismantling an international order that has ignored Russia’s national interests.
Migration crises serve a larger goal by fracturing European consensus. European leaders understand the stakes well enough.
Italy has set aside €32.6 million since 2017 to help the Libyan Coastguard enhance their maritime surveillance capacity. The agreement seeks to keep migrants out rather than give them protection.
On balance, European politicians know that immigration policy can make or break their careers. Russia knows exactly how to exploit that vulnerability.
Sceptics Claim Regional Disputes Stay Regional
Opponents might contend that Eastern Mediterranean disputes remain local affairs. They would point out that Greece, Türkiye, Cyprus, and Libya have quarrelled over maritime boundaries for decades without Russian involvement.
Libya’s protest to the UN might seem like standard diplomatic procedure rather than part of some grand Russian scheme. After all, Libya particularly objects to Greece’s 12 June international tender offering two large offshore blocks for exploration.
Over 85% of the 23,300 square kilometres covered by these blocks lie within what Libya considers its maritime territory. Such disputes stem from genuine disagreements over energy resources and territorial rights.
Why Regional Disputes Now Serve Global Powers
However, such a viewpoint misses how modern geopolitics works. Regional disputes don’t stay regional when great powers compete for influence.
Russia doesn’t need to create these conflicts directly when it can amplify existing tensions to serve its purposes. The timing matters enormously.
As Ukraine faces pressure over possible negotiations, Russia seeks every advantage. Migration pressures weakens Western resolve to support Ukraine financially and militarily.
Europe Must Act Before Crisis Hits
European leaders need to tackle these disputes before they spiral out of control. The European Union should push for binding arbitration of maritime boundaries through international courts.
Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis has proposed forming technical negotiation teams with both the Tripoli and eastern Libyan administrations to explore dialogue. European energy independence becomes more urgent than ever.
Every cancelled pipeline project or suspended interconnector gives Russia another tool to pressure the West. The EU must diversify energy sources and strengthen internal connections to reduce vulnerability.
Greece remains open to bilateral negotiations or, failing that, referral to the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Despite the tension, Greece emphasises that it will continue to exercise its sovereign rights responsibly and lawfully.
The Stakes Keep Rising
As both countries invoke international law and appeal for peaceful negotiation, the potential exists for diplomacy to prevail. However, unless common legal ground is found or arbitration is accepted, tensions are likely to persist.
The Mediterranean’s ancient role as a crossroads of civilisations continues today. The difference now is that regional disputes can quickly become global crises when great powers see opportunities to gain leverage on intractable issues.
Keep up with Daily Euro Times for more updates!
Read also:
Greece Courts Haftar as Türkiye Expands Role in West
Russia Bunkers Down in Libya, European Assets on the Line
Libya: EU Patches Up a Broken Seam
