The Serena Hotel in Islamabad was described by reporters as an unlikely venue for world peace. Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir, who knows both the Trump administration and the leadership of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, spent months building the back channels that made the meeting possible. JD Vance led the American delegation.
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf led Tehran’s. After a night of talks, Vance held a press conference in which he said the US had presented its “final and best offer” and announced the delegation was leaving. Iranian officials said they had been caught off guard. “The Iranians were pissed off about that press conference,” one source with knowledge told Axios. Iran’s foreign minister later said the two sides were “inches away” from agreement when the US shifted its position.
The ceasefire that created the window for these talks remains technically in place until 21 April, though the Strait of Hormuz has not fully reopened and both sides have continued accusing each other of violations. Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are now attempting to broker a second round of talks before the deadline.
The Nuclear File Blocked Everything
The gap that prevented a deal was primarily about uranium enrichment. The United States proposed a 20-year moratorium. Iran countered with a single-digit number of years. Washington also demanded dismantling of major enrichment facilities and removal of Iran’s existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium from the country, an end to funding for allied militant groups, and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without any toll. Iran rejected several of these as maximalist, and its negotiators had to return to Tehran for approval before they could respond further, which is when Vance walked out.
The comparison with the original 2015 JCPOA is therefore misleading. That deal was built around a detailed technical architecture, with enrichment limits, verification mechanisms, and a multilateral structure that took years to negotiate. The current process is moving through active war damage, a blockaded strait, and public statements that frequently contradict each other within hours.
Trump said on Sunday that it was a “really good meeting, except for one issue: they want to have nuclear weapons.” Iran’s spokesman said there was agreement on a range of issues, with two or three sticking points. These are not compatible accounts of the same meeting.
A Ceasefire Creates Its Own Illusion
There are reasons not to dismiss the current opening entirely. Pakistan’s mediation has at least preserved contact between sides that had no meaningful channel before the war. Vance said Iran had “moved in our direction” on several points. Turkey’s foreign minister suggested an extension of 45 to 60 days to allow negotiations to continue. The talks are not declared dead. Nobody from either side has said the process is finished.
But ceasefires often produce their own illusion of progress. Violence drops, diplomatic photos circulate, and outsiders begin speaking as though a framework has already been born. The real situation is that the deepest dispute, how much of Iran’s nuclear programme survives any deal, and for how long, remains exactly where it was before Islamabad.
The ceasefire expires on 21 April. If no extension is agreed, the question of what follows it is not hypothetical.
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