France must stop flogging a dead horse in the Indian Ocean. The latest commission with Madagascar over the scattered island chain, the Éparses Islands, shows Paris grasping at straws whilst other powers circle like vultures.
Macron’s Commission Masks Strategic Weakness
President Emmanuel Macron’s agreement to revive talks over the Éparses islands looks like diplomatic window dressing.
Madagascar has contested French claims to Europa, Juan de Nova, Bassas da India, and the Glorieuses for decades. Now President Andry Rajoelina threatens to visit one of these territories “as president of the republic of Madagascar.”
Such a landing would trigger a diplomatic crisis. France lacks the clout to prevent it without causing bigger problems across Africa.
Military Presence Spreads Too Thin
France maintains roughly 2,000 troops through the Forces Armées de la Zone Sud de l’Océan Indien (FAZSOI). These forces cover vast distances across multiple territories.
Recent events show how stretched this presence has become.
Cyclone Chido devastated Mayotte in December. France struggled to provide adequate relief despite deploying military engineers. The territory remains contested by the Comoros and recognised by the UN as illegally occupied.
Rising Powers Smell Blood
China has become Madagascar’s biggest trading partner whilst quietly backing territorial claims against France. Beijing seeks naval facilities across the Indian Ocean. India leverages diaspora networks to build influence whilst supporting Madagascar’s position.
Russia offers military cooperation to countries contesting French territorial claims. Moscow hopes to replicate its Sahel success by exploiting post-colonial grievances.
Hidden Riches Raise Stakes
Maritime exploration has detected potential gas deposits near Juan de Nova island. The scattered islands control access to rich fishing grounds and possible deep-sea mining sites. France’s Hulot Law banned new hydrocarbon exploration permits in 2017.
Such environmental policies may boost green credentials but frustrate potential partners. Madagascar and other regional states see through France’s “sanctuarisation” of contested territories.
Chagos Template Offers Face-Saving Exit
Britain’s recent agreement with Mauritius over the Chagos Islands provides a somewhat workable model.
London transferred sovereignty whilst maintaining military access through cooperative arrangements. France could follow suit with Madagascar over the scattered islands.
Smart diplomacy now beats forced concessions later. The commission talks offer France a chance to shape outcomes whilst regional dynamics remain fluid.
Pragmatic Partnership Beats Colonial Holdout
France should embrace managed retreat from its most contested claims. Offering real concessions could secure long-term cooperation agreements with Madagascar. Building multilateral frameworks would distribute costs whilst preserving influence through partnership.
The alternative is watching China, India, and Russia fill the vacuum. France cannot afford to let others dictate terms in waters bearing India’s name.
Keep up with Daily Euro Times for more updates!
Read also:
Diego-Garcia Deal Hangs in the Balance
Justice is the Best Guarantee for Diego Garcia
Geopolitics in the Skies, New Airport in Socotra
