When Qatar Airways diverted 90 flights carrying 20,000 passengers as Iranian missiles struck the US Al Udeid Air Base, something extraordinary happened. Gulf states weathered superpower conflict whilst growing stronger.
Trump’s fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran grabs headlines, but Gulf diplomacy holds real power to determine whether peace lasts or nuclear proliferation chaos spreads.
The twelve-day war left Iran’s nuclear programme damaged but not destroyed. Trump’s boasts about “obliterating” facilities rang hollow. U.S. intelligence assessed strikes set back Tehran’s programme by months, not decades.
Gulf States Emerge as Regional Powerbrokers
Throughout turmoil, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE carved out roles as regional powerbrokers.
Professor Abdulkhaleq Abdulla from the UAE observed "Gulf countries have become a centre of gravity in the region."
Unlike traditional Arab powers Egypt and Jordan, Gulf states possess financial muscle and diplomatic networks spanning Beijing to Washington.
Qatar’s role proved telling. The emirate coordinated with Gulf partners to close airspace before Iran’s retaliation. Simultaneously, Qatar helped broker ceasefire through established Tehran channels.
Its Foreign Minister condemned Iranian attacks but maintained "Iran is a neighbouring country, and the Iranian people are a friendly people."
Balanced positioning gives Gulf states leverage pure allies or enemies lack.
Nuclear Proliferation Threatens Regional Stability
Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain the wild card.
Strikes bought time but hardened Iranian resolve. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told lawmakers Iran’s “peaceful nuclear programme will move forward at a faster pace” following IAEA cooperation suspension.
Without Gulf mediation, Iran faces stark choices. Former minister Emad Abshenas warned foreign strikes "often strengthen" regimes. Academic Masoud Fekri echoed concerns, saying surviving military confrontation grants hardliners "symbolic victory."
Iran’s parliament voted to suspend cooperation with international nuclear inspectors.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared strikes "strengthened Iran's resolve" to continue uranium enrichment.
A cornered Iranian regime pursuing nuclear weapons would trigger proliferation across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has hinted at developing nuclear capability should Iran acquire weapons.
Economic Interests Drive Peace Efforts
During conflict, regional aviation networks collapsed overnight; supply chains froze and investment fled to safe havens. The war demonstrated how quickly regional conflict disrupts global connectivity.
Gulf states spent decades building themselves into global hubs. Their sovereign wealth funds give economic leverage worldwide. Their position between East and West allows them to speak languages Washington and Tehran both understand.
Moreover, sustained conflict empowers radical voices. Conservative analyst Seyed Mousavi described the 2015 nuclear deal as "a very bad experiment" validating hardline scepticism toward diplomacy.
Continued warfare strengthens such voices whilst marginalising pragmatic alternatives.
Building Comprehensive Peace Through Gulf Mediation
Gulf states possess unique assets for brokering lasting peace. They maintain channels to both Iran and Israel whilst hosting US military bases.
Dr Neil Quilliam from Chatham House noted Gulf states' "deliberate position in the middle gives them leverage to play."
Before current tensions, Oman successfully hosted US-Iran nuclear negotiations. Qatar mediated between rival Afghan factions. UAE normalised relations with Israel whilst maintaining Iranian trade links. Such track records prove Gulf capacity for complex diplomacy.
The path forward requires patient construction of mutual interests. Iran needs economic relief from sanctions. Israel wants security guarantees. The US seeks regional stability without endless military commitments.
Trust-building measures might include Iranian guarantees about uranium enrichment limits for sanctions relief. Israeli commitments to avoid preemptive strikes for international monitoring. US security assurances backed by Gulf financial incentives for compliance.
Looking Beyond the Immediate Ceasefire
Soon after ceasefire announcement, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed willingness to return to nuclear talks with the United States.
Pezeshkian told the UAE leader, Iran was "ready to resolve issues at the negotiating table."
Trump said the U.S. and Iranian officials would speak next week. “We may sign an agreement, I don’t know,” Trump told reporters. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff quoted Trump as “hopeful for a comprehensive peace agreement” with Iran.
Gulf states can help craft packages addressing all priorities simultaneously. None would satisfy maximalist demands from any party. All would provide stepping stones toward broader agreements.
The alternative is regional arms races, proxy conflicts, and nuclear proliferation threatening global security. Gulf diplomacy offers the only realistic path through such dangers whilst preserving the ceasefire Trump’s military pressure helped create.
Without Gulf mediation, the ’12-day war’ will be remembered by another name, leaving the region more unstable than ever before.
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