Beijing’s military escalation in response to a British naval passage through the Taiwan Strait exposes a dangerous new reality.
China no longer treats the world’s waterways as genuinely international.
The numbers tell the full account. China dispatched 74 military aircraft towards the Taiwan Strait between late Thursday and early Friday. Sixty-one of them crossed the median line.
HMS Spey had sailed through the strait days earlier. Britain’s patrol vessel followed international law, exercising legitimate navigation rights. Beijing’s response was swift and overwhelming.
Western Attention Divided Across Multiple Crises
Europe finds itself juggling too many balls at once. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul appeals to Iran about nuclear talks.
European ministers coordinate Ukrainian military aid. Resources flow towards diplomatic efforts rather than economic competition with China.
At the same time, Chinese factories work overtime. Trade surplus has reached nearly $500 billion. Electric vehicle exports alone soared 64.60% yearly.
Manufacturing activity hit a 12-month high in March. China builds economic strength while Europe manages crises elsewhere.
For years, western navies have sailed through the Taiwan Strait without major incident. Those days appear numbered. Beijing now considers any foreign military vessel transit a deliberate provocation requiring military response.
China’s Strategic Patience Pays Off
The scale of China’s reaction discloses calculated strategy. Six naval vessels accompanied the aircraft deployment.
The planes ranged from drones to fighter jets and early warning aircraft. China’s coast guard joined with the navy to practice blockading Taiwan.
Maritime militia vessels also participated. These state-backed civilian ships assert Chinese territorial claims.
Their involvement implies China prepares for various operations, including invasion and quarantine scenarios.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue, French President Emmanuel Macron warned against "spheres of coercion" established by revisionist countries.
His words ring hollow when China acts with impunity in international waters.
Since 2023, China has added roughly 100 nuclear warheads yearly. The arsenal now stands at 600 warheads.
By 2035, China could field 1,500 warheads, nearly matching Russia and America's ready arsenals.
Taiwan Endures Growing Military Pressure
Taiwan’s military scrambled fighter jets and deployed naval ships in response. Land-based missile systems activated to monitor the incursion.
The island’s 23 million people endure increasing intimidation tactics designed to wear down equipment and morale.
President William Lai's administration confronts unprecedented pressure. Beijing labels him a "destroyer of cross-strait peace" and "instigator of war."
Chinese military exercises now respond to domestic speeches rather than international visits. The rules have changed.
In 2024, Chinese military aircraft flew a record 3,075 sorties into Taiwan's air defence identification zone. Numbers increased 80% from 2023.
Near-daily incursions delegitimise Taiwan’s claims to surrounding air and seas.
ASEAN Nations Caught Between Superpowers
Southeast Asian countries watch nervously as tensions rise. They face pressure from both Washington’s tariff threats and Beijing’s carrot-and-stick diplomacy.
Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong captured the mood perfectly: "We want to embrace comprehensive engagement with all parties."
However, comprehensive engagement becomes impossible when one party militarises international waterways.
China’s actions force smaller nations to choose sides. That choice grows more difficult as Europe and America focus elsewhere.
Chinese experts believe American Middle Eastern entanglement benefits Beijing strategically.
Each dollar spent on Iranian nuclear diplomacy represents resources unavailable for Pacific competition. Western strategic overstretch plays into Chinese hands.
The West’s Response Must Match China’s Resolve
China, some might argue, faces domestic economic troubles. Property crisis continues, consumer demand remains weak. European companies report greater operating difficulties.
However, China’s export strategy deliberately compensates for domestic weaknesses. Government policy channels cheap loans from property developers to manufacturers.
Beijing plays the long game while Western governments react to immediate crises.
While European ministers gather for nuclear talks, Chinese factories fill orders worldwide. Each Western diplomatic meeting represents another day of Chinese growth, another warhead added to their arsenal.
Freedom of navigation operations must continue regardless of Chinese threats. Britain’s HMS Spey transit should become routine, not remarkable.
European and American navies need regular presence in the Taiwan Strait. Backing down now invites further shows of force.
NATO allies should coordinate naval passages through the strait. Joint operations would spread the political cost while demonstrating collective resolve.
China’s military response proves the importance of maintaining international law at sea.
The stakes extend beyond Taiwan itself. If China succeeds in controlling the Taiwan Strait, other waterways will follow.
The South China Sea becomes a Chinese lake. Trading routes, like the Spratley Islands, worth trillions face Beijing's veto power.
A Test of Western Resolve
China’s military escalation following HMS Spey’s passage represents a deliberate test. Beijing watches how Europe responds to intimidation tactics.
Weakness invites further pressure. Strength deters it.
European leaders must recognise their strategic priorities. Supporting Ukraine matters, but not at the expense of Chinese expansion.
Resources have limits, but maintaining international law has no alternative.
Singapore’s waters hosted the Shangri-La Dialogue as Chinese warplanes buzzed Taiwan. The irony was lost on nobody.
While defence ministers talked cooperation, Beijing demonstrated coercion through military might.
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