In West Africa, the United States is losing its footing. Its military alliances in the Sahel have crumbled. After a string of army takeovers, new leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have turned their backs on the West, looking to Moscow for security instead.
A big change occurred. American soldiers were asked to leave Niger in 2024. The withdrawal was the end of a central American listening post for watching an unsettled region. Russia’s Africa Corps, a state-backed mercenary force, quickly began filling the gap.
America is now scrambling. Without a strong local partner, Washington’s ability to track threats and work against militant groups is severely weakened. The old way has failed. Out of a growing need, a new understanding between Mauritania and Israel, strongly backed by the United States, is about gaining a new Western foothold in Africa.
A Land Left Behind by the West
The bigger situation is a clear one.
For well over a decade, the West’s plan for keeping the Sahel safe rested on military help. The American-led Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership was intended to build up local armies, while French troops also fought a long war in Mali before leaving.
That time has ended. Governments that once welcomed Western uniforms are gone, replaced by army rulers who see Russia as a more willing partner. Russia’s method, free from demands on human rights, is appealing to these new regimes.
The broad change leaves Mauritania in a uniquely valuable spot. Geographically and politically, it is one of the few regional states where the West can still do business.
Nouakchott is Washington’s last and best hope for an anchor in a sea of Russian power. To secure that anchor, the White House is using the powerful tool of fostering a normalisation pact with Israel.
A New Deal with a Familiar Feel
It is not a new play for the United States.
Mauritania first agreed to recognise Israel back in 1999. Even then, that agreement was closely linked to American security goals. However, that friendship did not hold, and it was severed in 2010 under the weight of domestic opinion.
Today, the stakes are much higher as the region has become a great chessboard for Washington and Moscow. Recent normalisation deals under the Abraham Accords have made clear that Arab states are willing to make pacts with Israel. In return, they receive very large economic and security benefits from America.
Indeed, the United States seems to be trying this same play again. Washington can put a very tempting package on the table with aid, foreign investment, and security guarantees.
Normalisation is seen as the price of admission for this level of American friendship.
The Great Hurdle in America’s Road
America’s plan, however, has one very large and troubling hurdle to clear.
The people of Mauritania feel a strong and lasting bond with the Palestinians. History shows Mauritania and Morocco fighting similar battles against European colonial overtures.
Any government step towards Israel is almost certain to cause anger on the streets. Popular sentiment is a powerful force.
There have been many large protests in the capital, Nouakchott, giving support for Gaza. Going further, about 200 Islamic scholars issued a fatwa, forbidding any normalisation with Israel and calling it a form of "treason".
The Mauritanian government cannot simply ignore this sentiment. It must tread very carefully. Joining with American and Israeli interests could lead to serious unrest at home.
Why a Deal May Still Happen
The leaders in Nouakchott must grasp the nettle.
The political risks at home are indeed very real, yet the dangers from outside its borders might be judged as being even greater. The long and short of it is a choice between home anger and outside threats.
Being ringed by unstable states backed by a rising Russia is a frightening thought for any leader. The very safety and steadiness of the Mauritanian state is on the line. Here is where America’s offer becomes so powerful. Washington can help keep the country safe.
The United States can step up with the kind of support Russia cannot equal. For the United States, the cost of doing nothing is too high. Leaving the whole of the Sahel to Moscow would be a great geopolitical loss.
A Foothold Built on More Than Guns
For a new plan to have any hope of working, America must think differently. A new Western foothold cannot be simply another army base. In the first place, it must be built on a real partnership that helps the Mauritanian people themselves.
Therefore, any American offer must be one of shared wealth and a better future. It must be about bringing in new jobs and making sure there is clean water. These are areas where Israeli know-how can also play a big part.
Any deal framed in such a way, as a road to a better life, would be much harder for doubters at home to fight against. It could change the story from a political sell-out to a smart choice for the country’s own good.
The future of Western power in the region might depend on a tricky peace deal, carefully guided by Washington.
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