Somalia sits atop an estimated 20 billion barrels of crude oil. The discovery could transform its fortunes, or plunge it deeper into instability.
With Türkiye securing a controversial deal giving it near-total control over exploration, ordinary Somalis may see little benefit while foreign powers carve up their resources.
As the African Union mission collapses and Somaliland pushes for recognition, is Somalia destined to follow the Democratic Republic of Congo’s tragic path – resource-rich but mired in conflict?
A Deal Stacked Against Somalia?
The agreement between Mogadishu and Ankara grants Türkiye’s state-owned Turkish Petroleum Corporation exclusive rights to explore and extract oil across vast offshore blocks.
Critics argue the terms are lopsided: Türkiye recovers 90% of initial output as “cost petroleum,” while Somalia gets just 5%.
The catch? Mogadishu only receives oil if the oil is found.
TPAO avoids standard fees, bonuses, and even taxes, with disputes settled in Istanbul, not Mogadishu.
Somali engineer Abduqadir Yusuf calls it the “worst deal ever signed by a sovereign nation,” accusing the government of surrendering control over resources.
The lack of competitive bidding and exemptions for Türkiye echo exploitative contracts historically imposed on fragile states.
Türkiye’s Expanding Footprint
Ankara frames its involvement as benevolent partnership, pointing to investments in infrastructure, security, and now, a rocket launch facility in Somalia. Yet its influence is deepening at a precarious moment.
The African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia, AUSSOM, faces a $73.7 million shortfall after the U.S. refused funding, signalling waning international commitment.
Meanwhile, Somaliland's foreign minister is courting Washington, in a visit that according to close sources to the Foreign Minister, is a initial setup for a full visit by the Somaliland President to Washington.
The visit is the latest strain in U.S.-Somali relations.
Türkiye’s presence may deter armed groups like Al-Shabaab from targeting offshore sites, but coastal infrastructure remains vulnerable. If profits bypass Somalis, resentment could fuel militancy – just as resource disputes have destabilised the DRC.
The Counterargument: Necessary Gamble?
Proponents insist the deal jumpstarts an industry Somalia lacks the capacity to develop alone.
Turkish analyst Tunç Demirtaş argues the 90% clause merely covers exploration costs, with Somalia retaining ownership.
"Turkiye has no interest in owning Somali resources," he claims. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud defends the pact as a pragmatic step toward energy independence.
Yet even if the terms are standard, Somalia’s weak governance raises red flags. Without transparency, oil wealth could entrench corruption or trigger clashes between federal and regional leaders – mirroring Congo’s cycle of greed and violence.
What Comes Next?
The international community must demand fairer terms and oversight to prevent Somalia becoming another cautionary tale.
The U.S. and EU should condition support on accountable revenue-sharing, while Somali civil society needs tools to hold leaders to account.
Otherwise, this oil boom may leave ordinary Somalis with nothing but the bitter aftertaste of exploitation.
As Somaliland angles for recognition and Türkiye tightens its grip, Somalia’s fate hangs in the balance.
Resources should be a lifeline, not a curse – but history suggests the latter is more likely.
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