Donald Trump is back as President of the United States and countries in the Middle East are preparing their interactions with his administration.
His last term left a lasting mark on the region, reshaping alliances and sparking new initiatives: namely the Abraham Accords. With his return to the White House, regional leaders brace for another wave of transformation.
Many regional leaders familiar with his earlier term anticipate a more nimble and flexible U.S. foreign policy.
GCC Ties with Trump’s Administration
With Trump’s return, the Gulf states are set to deepen their ties with Washington.
GCC states perceive his administration’s emphasis on transactional diplomacy and deal-making as an opportunity to enhance their influence on a regional and global scale. GCC states are interested in innovations in all sectors, particularly technology, renewable energy, and infrastructure development as the GCC seeks to diversify their economies and guarantee future competitiveness.
Saudi Arabia: Strengthening Bonds and Pursuing New Opportunities Under Trump
Riyadh’s relationship with Trump is historically strong, shaped by mutual interests that foster security and economic ties. During Trump’s first term, Riyadh valued his withdrawal from the Iran JCPOA nuclear deal and the imposition of sanctions on Tehran.
As Trump returns, the Kingdom will likely seek security guarantees and advanced military technology, potentially as a precursor to normalising relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework. It will also request enhanced support for its Vision 2030 initiatives as Saudi megaprojects, such as NEOM, face funding obstacles.
The UAE and Bahrain
The UAE and Bahrain, key players in the Abraham Accords, are expected to deepen their collaboration with Israel and the U.S. under Trump.
These nations benefited from Trump’s facilitation of peace agreements, which supported their international standing and opened new economic and technological partnerships.
With Trump’s return, there is potential for the further expansion of the Accords, possibly including Saudi Arabia or other GCCmembers. The UAE, in particular, may push for increased U.S. investment in its giant tech and green energy sectors, aligning with its long-term strategic goals, whilstoffering a promising economic future for the region.
Qatar: Strengthening U.S. Ties Through Investment and Reconciliation
Qatar’s relationship with the U.S. improved during Trump’s first term.
Trump’s administration played a role in facilitating the 2021 reconciliation and Qatar will likely aim to build on this improved dynamic. Qatar’s significant investments in the U.S. could serve as a foundation for strengthening bilateral ties as Trump prioritises business over policy.
Trump’s broader Middle East policies this time around will likely shape efforts to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His “Peace to Prosperity” plan, which focused on economic incentives for Palestinian territories while sidelining political leadership, could remain central.
Despite scepticism from Palestinian leaders, Trump’s strong ties with Israel and regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will continue to add to his diplomatic leverage over either side. Implementing this plan could significantly impact the dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Navigating U.S. Strategy and Regional Tensions
Gulf states are likely to align closely with Trump’s approach. The Gulf Cooperation Council members may push for greater coordination with Washington to counter Iran’s influence, particularly in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria.
Variations in individual Gulf states’ strategies could complicate a unified approach. Some nations seek de-escalation to prioritise economic stability.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is expected to reinvigorate U.S.-Gulf relations, offering opportunities and challenges.
With Donald Trump now in office, the Gulf states are poised to influence the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape significantly. Their growing impact stretches from local conflicts to international diplomacy, highlighting the importance of their relationship with the U.S.
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