“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vice President JD Vance wrote on X after Republicans surrendered the House and Senate. Democrats are on course for the widest House majority in three decades and flipped Senate seats in Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Maine.Â
The rout has opened the race to succeed Donald Trump earlier than anyone planned. Vance remains the likeliest nominee, though the defeat has turned a coronation into a contest.
Vance Inherits an Unpopular War
A poll this week gave Vance 40% of Republican primary voters, with State Secretary Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr on 21% each. Primary electorates usually defer to sitting vice presidents, and his stint as Republican National Committee finance chair has given him the donor class’s ear.
His blame for the war carries a price. Traders read his post as a hint of de-escalation, and oil plunged by around $8 a barrel. Last month he even wrote to an Iranian security official, Mohsen Rezaei, proposing talks to prevent escalation.
He nonetheless serves a president who says the war ends only “when I want it to”. One ally close to the White House admitted “He’s not as unpopular as Trump but he’s unpopular”. Newt Gingrich faulted Vance for defending an Ohio advertisement by Vivek Ramaswamy, which featured the estranged mother of rival Amy Acton, who then won.
Rubio Escapes the Blame
Rubio has stayed away from the microphone on Iran, leaving Vance, the envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth to sell the war. Some Republicans see him as one of the few cabinet members able to skate away from blame, and former congressman Trey Gowdy judged him the night’s ultimate victor.
Rubio said in September he had no plans to run, and he has promised to be among the first to back Vance. Trump keeps stoking the rivalry, having teased the pair as an “unstoppable” ticket. Representative Marlin Stutzman wasted no time endorsing Rubio regardless.
Andrew Payne of the Chatham House think tank judges the Floridian better placed to win back traditional conservatives who drifted from the party over the past decade. Establishment donors would probably welcome such a broader coalition.
DeSantis and Kemp Court the Disillusioned
Ron DeSantis wasted little time either. The Florida governor called the results an “extinction-level event for Republicans” and boasted of his own state, which “was able to hold the line”. He has refused to discuss his future, saying only he will “be a free man” in January.
His record looks less spotless than advertised, since a redistricting push meant to add House seats appears to have fallen short.
Before the vote, he had accused the administration of gaslighting voters and urged Republicans to rethink their relationship with Big Tech, an industry close to Vance. Senator Ted Cruz, who had tested the waters in September, conceded too many in politics had dismissed affordability.
Georgia’s Brian Kemp praised the “conservative principles of our party”, and a South Carolina operative said “He’s running.” The former House speaker judged the defeat had left the nomination “wide open”, and Iowa conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats expects a field rivalling the crowded 2016 primary.
Who Leads the Movement Next
The war had already split the Make America Great Again movement into isolationists and interventionists before polling day. Reporting recorded in May how MAGA renegades Marjorie Taylor Greene and Tucker Carlson broke with the president.
Carlson, a close friend of Vance, has floated a third party, and supporters such as former Representative Greene have encouraged him to run. Turning Point, a potential turnkey operation for Vance, lost ground after backing Andy Biggs, who then lost the Arizona governor’s race by double digits.
Trump himself hedges. “Maybe he won’t run,” he said of Vance, adding “I don’t know who is going to run.”
What’s To Come
Vance holds the best odds if he runs and Trump endorses him. Rubio gains most from any hesitation, since many establishment names favour him.
Oil dropping to about $94 a barrel from a peak above $116 last month offers a hint of relief any nominee will want to claim. Cheaper petrol would help Vance most, since his post already staked out the case for ending the war.
The GOP’s public image will probably change in tone before it changes in name. A standard-bearer could promise restraint abroad and relief on prices at home, with Trump as kingmaker. Whether Trump anoints Vance, and whether the VP even runs, remains to be seen.
Keep up with Daily Euro Times for more updates
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