Addis Ababa is trading blood for time as internal rebellions and hostile neighbours breed a crisis that threatens to swallow the entire Horn of Africa region.
Last Saturday, Ethiopia demanded that Eritrea pull its soldiers out of territory in the northeast because the government in Addis Ababa believes Asmara is training rebels in the northwest. Eritrea dismissed the claims as a total lie.
Although a dispute like that might normally seem like a small border spat, the luxury of a localised conflict has gone. The army is spread across the country as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed manages an encompassing security crisis involving domestic rebellion and a crowded field of foreign players.
Amhara Volunteers Turn Their Guns Around
The name Fano translates loosely as volunteer fighters in the local language. The groups traditionally gathered to defend the land from foreign invasion and were famous for fighting the Italians in the 1930s.
Today the situation has changed because the Amhara region has endured 20 months of internal fighting. The militias want full control over lands they claim as their own and the largest groups merged in January 2026 to form the Amhara Fano National Movement.
The move provided a single command for a previously broken resistance. The 2022 peace deal that ended the Tigray war turned old friends into enemies because many in the Fano movement saw the agreement as a compromise.
Government plans in early 2023 to break up regional forces led many soldiers to choose militia enrolment. Since the start of the changes, the rural highlands have become an expanding theatre of war and Fano forces are even starting to enter major cities.
Tigray Reopens Old Wounds
Late January brought a serious return to fighting between Tigrayan and federal forces since the 2022 ceasefire. Tigray Defence Forces launched operations along the border with Amhara and fighting broke out in western Tigray after forces crossed the Tekeze River to take Tselemt.
Federal troops withdrew from southern Tigray and the national army carried out drone strikes in response. United Nations rights officials warned that people are being punished for perceived loyalties. UN officials noted reports of Eritrean troops in the area and called for a political end to the fighting.
Questions surround a group called Army 70 which was formed by Tigrayans living in Sudan who recently finished training. The Sudanese army allegedly gives the fighters supplies and the group adds a cross-border trouble since the neighbour of Ethiopia is going through its own internal war.
The situation brings back memories of the old military cooperation. Former minister Gedu Andargachew once described how the two armies worked as one and pushed through Debre Tabor but the partnership ended after the peace deal.
The Logic of Collapse
In January, Ethiopia seized thousands of bullets that officials say came from Eritrea and Asmara described the claims as part of ongoing hostility.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed acknowledged last week that Eritrean troops killed many people in the town of Aksum during the last war. The late admission of guilt arrived as the situation went downhill.
Ethiopia says Eritrea now helps the Tigrayan rebels who do not like the peace deal. Every new claim pulls another thread because Sudan lets Tigrayan forces stay there and Eritrea allegedly arms the Amhara insurgents. Egypt sends help to Somalia and stops Ethiopia from reaching the sea.
In response, Ethiopia has increased its army presence along the border with Somalia and it also encourages rebels in other places.
The national army is struggling because it is spread too thin. Foreign Policy listed the fight between Ethiopia and Eritrea as a war likely to start in 2026. The report mentioned the angry words and quick troop moves as both countries reinforced their spots on the border.
Money and gear are running out faster than new allies can be found. Observers find little chance that the Amhara rebels can take the capital but the constant war is ruining the country. For Abiy Ahmed, the real danger is an existential crisis of statehood.
The Prime Minister won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2018 for ending a long war with Eritrea. Eight years later, his foreign minister accuses Eritrea of military transgression and the shift is a blunt reversal of his work for peace.
The International Crisis Group recommends that Kenya and South Africa use their contacts to talk to both sides. The work could get help from the U.S., China and Saudi Arabia but a peaceful end rests on leaders stopping their armies from growing and ending the mean talk.
Keep up with Daily Euro Times for more updates!
Read also:
A Skeleton of Itself: How Isaias Afwerki Grounded Eritrea Down
New Nile Order: Uganda Stands with Ethiopia Against Egypt’s Control
