When Somalia’s regional leaders gathered in Nairobi this week, observers might have dismissed their talks as another chapter in Africa’s tribal conflicts.
Yet Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland and Saeed Abdullahi Deni of Puntland weren’t meeting to settle ancient clan scores.
Their alliance against President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud springs from a more immediate concern: who controls Somalia’s economic future.
Why Regional Leaders Turn Against Mogadishu
The crux of Somalia’s instability isn’t foreign meddling or ethnic divisions – it’s a narrow power struggle over unifying economic growth.
President Hassan’s government has consolidated more authority through strategic partnerships, particularly with Türkiye, which secured a maritime deal granting 30% of revenue from Somalia’s maritime resources.
Such agreements redirect economic control away from regions that historically managed their own affairs.
Regional leaders now feel sidelined from decisions that directly affect their territories’ prosperity. The federal government attempts to weaken Madobe’s control by setting up rival administrations in Jubaland whilst backing local security chiefs in Puntland who oppose Deni’s authority.
The Real Stakes Behind Political Theatre
This isn’t merely about personalities clashing over titles. Somalia sits atop an estimated 20 billion barrels of crude oil, potentially transforming the state’s fortunes.
Türkiye's state petroleum corporation secured exclusive rights to explore these resources, with terms that grant Türkiye 90% of initial output whilst Somalia receives just 5%.
Such deals highlight why regional leaders worry about centralisation.
When Villa Somalia signs agreements without proper consultation, regions lose their voice in managing resources that could lift their populations from poverty.
The Türkiye oil deal exemplifies this concern – negotiated in Mogadishu but affecting coastal areas under regional jurisdiction.
Economic Centralisation Breeds Political Resistance
Puntland and Jubaland have maintained relative stability precisely because they developed autonomous economic structures. Puntland launched successful military operations against ISIS strongholds, whilst Jubaland managed cross-border trade with Kenya.
Both regions built functioning institutions through local resource management.
President Hassan's centralisation drive threatens this model.
His administration pushes for direct federal control over ports, customs, and natural resources – areas where regions previously exercised authority.
When Mogadishu bypasses regional input on major economic decisions, it undermines the federal compact that kept Somalia’s fragments cooperating.
Foreign Powers Amplify Internal Divisions
International involvement compounds these tensions rather than causing them.
Türkiye’s military presence and economic deals strengthen Villa Somalia’s position, whilst the UAE historically cultivated ties with autonomous regions when relations with Mogadishu soured.
Each external partnership tilts Somalia’s internal balance of power.
Yet foreign influence succeeds only because domestic competition already exists.
External actors don’t create Somalia’s centre-periphery tensions; they leverage grievances for gain.
Türkiye wouldn’t gain leverage if Villa Somalia commanded genuine federal consensus, just as the UAE couldn’t build regional ties without existing grievances against central authority.
For instance, Emirati-Somaliland relations are driven by Hargeisa’s bid for international recognition despite Mogadishu’s disregard for Somaliland’s de facto sovereignty since its reassertion of independence 18 May 1991.
The Alliance Strategy Makes Economic Sense
Critics might argue that Jubaland and Puntland leaders simply resist losing personal power. However, their alliance reflects legitimate concerns about economic marginalisation.
Both regions contributed significantly to Somalia’s stability through local security operations and trade facilitation. They seek guarantees that future prosperity won’t flow exclusively through Mogadishu’s channels.
Their Nairobi meeting aims to negotiate a more balanced federal arrangement – one where regions retain meaningful authority over local resources whilst contributing to national development.
This approach has worked elsewhere: successful federations like Germany and Canada balance central coordination with regional autonomy over economic matters.
However, closer to home, other African proposals revolve around solutions arguing in favour of recognition and independence citing South Sudan.
Security Costs of Economic Disputes
Somalia’s political fragmentation directly undermines counter-insurgency efforts.
The national army struggles against Al-Shabaab partly because soldiers question whether they’re fighting for genuine national unity or Villa Somalia’s political projects.
When regions doubt the federal government’s commitment to inclusive governance, they withhold full cooperation from security operations.
Al-Shabaab exploited this dysfunction by recapturing towns across central Somalia in 2024.
The group portrayed itself as an alternative to a federal system perceived as serving narrow interests rather than national ones. Resolving the economic power struggle would remove this propaganda advantage.
A Framework for Sustainable Unity
Somalia needs a federal compact that acknowledges regional economic interests whilst building national cohesion.
This means transparent revenue-sharing agreements for oil and maritime resources, regional consultation on major international deals, and clear divisions of economic authority between federal and state levels.
The Jubaland-Puntland alliance could push for such reforms rather than simply opposing Villa Somalia.
Their combined economic weight – controlling key ports and trade routes – gives them bargaining power to demand meaningful federalism. Success would demonstrate that Somalia can achieve unity through negotiated agreements rather than centralised dominance.
European policymakers should recognise that Somalia’s stability depends on resolving these economic governance questions. Supporting inclusive federal institutions that balance central coordination with regional autonomy offers a better path than backing whichever faction currently controls Mogadishu.
Somalia’s regions won’t accept unity imposed from above – they’ll only embrace it when they see genuine benefits flowing to all of its population.
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