Diplomatic relations between nuclear powers India and Pakistan plummeted this week following a deadly attack in Kashmir. The crisis has rapidly expanded from a single violent incident to threats of water warfare and border closures.
Indian authorities blame Pakistan-based militants for the deaths of 26 Hindu tourists in Pahalgam. Pakistan vehemently denies involvement.
“India has staged this attack in a false flag operation,” Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told Sky News, warning of severe consequences if tensions escalate further.
Modi’s Strong Words Come Amid Bihar Election Focus
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered his first public response to the attack not from New Delhi but during a pre-scheduled visit to Bihar.
Modi switched from Hindi to English midway through his speech. "Today, from the soil of Bihar, I say this to the whole world, India will identify, trace and punish every terrorist and their backers."
His timing and location drew sharp criticism from opposition parties. “The nation is in mourning, and you are holding a political rally in Bihar,” Purnia MP Pappu Yadav wrote on social media platform X.
Rashtriya Janata Dal spokesperson, Shakti Singh Yadav, accused the Prime Minister of political opportunism. "Instead of sharing the grief of the victims' families, he chose to come to Bihar for electoral gains."
The political opposition questioned why Modi cancelled a scheduled visit to Kanpur but maintained his Bihar engagement. Bihar faces elections soon.
“Such incidents no longer seem like coincidences but rather planned events,” Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s General Secretary Supriyo Bhattacharya remarked.
Mr Wajahat Kazmi, a prominent regional analyst, told Daily Euro Times that electoral considerations play a central role. "The blame of recent Pahalgam attack was pinned on Pakistan by the Modi government without any evidence, let alone forensics."
Water Treaty Suspension Raises Stakes Dramatically
In response to the attack, India took multiple retaliatory measures.
These included suspending the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty, closing border crossings, downgrading diplomatic ties, and withdrawing visas for Pakistani nationals.
The water treaty suspension represents an unprecedented escalation. The agreement has governed water sharing between the two nations since 1960.
"The Indus and its tributaries that have sustained civilisations for thousands of years, now test the capacity of two modern nuclear-armed nations to cooperate," Dawn newspaper reported.
The treaty has faced mounting pressure over the past decade. India formally invoked Article XII(3) in 2023, requesting renegotiation which Pakistan refused.
Mr Kazmi told DET that the water treaty "is a lifeline for Pakistan's survival." He added that Pakistan has responded by restricting airspace for Indian airlines.
The western rivers form Pakistan’s primary water source. Without clear rules, everyday water management could become a flashpoint for new tensions.
Decades-Old Dispute Remains Unresolved
The current crisis exists within a broader historical context.
India and Pakistan have fought three wars over Kashmir—in 1947, 1965, and 1999.
"Kashmir is one of the biggest disputes between Pakistan and India since both countries got independence in 1947," Mr Kazmi explained. "Currently some parts are administered by Pakistan while some parts are occupied by India."
Kashmir has remained divided by the heavily militarised Line of Control. A separatist insurgency has claimed tens of thousands of lives.
Mr Kazmi noted that Kashmir "is one of the highest militarised zones in the world with over 800,000 Indian military personnel deployed there."
Overnight, Indian and Pakistani forces exchanged fire at the Line of Control, raising fears of further escalation.
International Response Grows Amid War Fears
U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed concerns about the situation. “There have been tensions on that border for 1,500 years so, you know, it’s the same as it has been.”
Trump predicted the dispute would get “figured out, one way or another.” He earlier posted on Truth Social: “The United States stands strong with India against Terrorism.”
Iranian officials condemned the attack and called for regional cooperation against terrorism.
Walter Ladwig, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, warned about nuclear risks.
"Both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and strikes between the two nuclear-armed states are serious."
Mr Kazmi believes several nations may step in. “The countries that are likely to bring both countries on negotiation table include the United States, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and China.”
Saudi Arabia has already contacted Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister regarding the crisis.
Balance of Power Complicates Calculations
Military historian Srinath Raghavan expects a “strong response…one that signals resolve to both domestic audiences and actors in Pakistan.”
Since 2016, India’s threshold for retaliation has included cross-border or air strikes. Pakistan will likely respond as it did after previous incidents.
"The risk, as always, is miscalculation—on both sides," Raghavan cautioned.
Mr Kazmi assessed that Pakistan maintains “a policy of defence rather than attack.” However, he warned that if India attempts “any misadventure then Pakistan has the armed forces ready and in high alert.”
Despite both countries having nuclear capability, Kazmi believes a full-scale war remains unlikely.
Border skirmishes may continue “until things settle down”, Kazmi said.
Keep up with Daily Euro Times for more updates!
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