In early November, Kazakhstan formally joined the Abraham Accords in a ceremony framed by White House fanfare. The event was designed to breathe new life into the American-led framework for cooperation between Tel Aviv and countries with Muslim majorities.
The diplomatic action formalizes a three-decade-old connection with Tel Aviv. For President Trump, it is personal vindication, occurring as Washington pursues Gaza reconstruction plans.
Trump has often complained about not receiving a Nobel Peace Prize for his work on the Accords and has previously suggested he deserves one. The announcement offers valuable political theater.
Saudi Arabia Charts Its Own Course
The region’s heavyweight, Saudi Arabia, is advancing its own diplomatic priorities.
Riyadh has consistently maintained its commitment to resolving the Palestinian question through established frameworks.
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud has insisted that a two-state outcome remains the only way to achieve lasting peace.
With considerable financial leverage and regional weight, Riyadh is actively and independently pursuing Palestinian recognition, convening a high-profile diplomatic conference in New York with France in July and hosting its own meetings throughout 2025.
The Rise of New Regional Powers
The entire power structure of the Middle East is being redrawn.
Türkiye has emerged as a formidable military force, now ranking among the world's top ten and well ahead of Saudi Arabia. The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 is seen as a major success for Turkish and Qatari regional policy, as Sunni groups now control a core Arab country.
Washington’s posture is adjusting in response. The United States is allegedly preparing to establish a military presence at an airbase near Damascus.
The action would be intended to support a security pact between the new Syrian government and Tel Aviv, pointing to Syria’s strategic absorption into an emerging sphere of Turkish and Saudi interests.
Gulf states have emerged as the dominant regional actors, coordinating on Syria’s future based on shared interests, although Syria is in no rush to join the Accords contrary to rumoured mediation by Abu Dhabi between Tel Aviv and Damascus.
Changing Tides of American Support
A foundational pillar of the old order, strong American support for Tel Aviv, is showing cracks. Public opinion in the United States is undergoing a transformation.
According to recent research, negative views toward the Israeli government have grown to encompass a majority of American adults.The trend is especially pronounced among younger generations. Unfavourable views among younger Republicans have jumped to half of that demographic.
Furthermore, a small fraction of younger Republicans believe that actions in Gaza were justified as self-defense.
A Costly Push for Hearts and Minds
In response to changing public perceptions, Tel Aviv has launched costly public relations campaigns to rebuild its image in the United States.
One strategy, revealed in federal filings, involves a multi-million-dollar geofencing contract awarded to a firm that maps the physical boundaries of churches during worship services.
The technology allows for targeted advertisements, framed in biblical language, to be sent directly to the mobile devices of attendees.
While the diplomatic stagecraft proceeds, its connection to the region’s underlying realities remains a pressing question.
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Read also:
European Recognition: The Abraham Accords Lose Their Silver Lining
Türkiye Challenges Israel’s Iron Dome Supremacy
The New Middle East: A Region In Flux
