Ukraine and the U.S. finalised the minerals agreement on 30 April after months of tense negotiations.
The bilateral arrangement establishes the United States-Ukraine Reinvestment Fund, offering Washington preferential access to new Ukrainian minerals while promising military assistance.
President Donald Trump frames the agreement as “payback” for American support during the war.
His administration claims to have spent $350 billion supporting Ukraine.
However, official Pentagon figures place the actual expenditure at $182.8 billion between January 2022 and December 2024.
The White House pursued this arrangement aggressively. Trump initially demanded $500 billion in profits from exploited minerals as compensation for wartime support.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected this proposal. He refused to sign “an agreement that will be paid off by 10 generations of Ukrainians.”
The two leaders clashed during a February meeting in the Oval Office. A previous version nearly collapsed during this “particularly fiery” encounter.
War Creates Barriers to Mining Development
Ukraine faces extraordinary obstacles to resource development, mining experts warn.
Adam Webb from Benchmark Minerals Intelligence consultancy told Reuters: “If anyone’s thinking suddenly all these minerals are going to be flying out of Ukraine, they’re dreaming.”
“It’s going to be difficult for people to justify investing money there when there are options to invest in critical minerals in countries that are not at war.”
Mineral deposits typically take 10 to 20 years to develop even in stable countries like Canada or Australia.Â
Ukraine must overcome additional challenges, including limited geological data and damaged infrastructure.
The path to extraction remains "fraught with formidable challenges and uncertainty." Ending the three-year war is only the first hurdle.
Maps showing trillions in mineral deposits across Ukraine rely largely on outdated studies.
Proper surveys could take several years to complete.
Mineral Wealth Scattered Throughout Ukraine
Ukraine holds deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals classified as critical by the EU. These include precious metals, ferroalloys, titanium, zirconium, graphite and lithium.
The country also possesses rare earth elements essential for electronics, defence systems, aerospace applications and renewable energy technology.
Ukrainian mineral reserves constituted approximately 5 percent of global supply (2022). The country accounts for 7 percent of global titanium production.
It’s lithium reserves remain largely untapped but are considered among Europe’s largest, estimated at 500,000 tonnes.
An estimated 40 percent of Ukrainian metallic mineral resources are inaccessible due to Russian occupation, according to data from the Kyiv-based think tank We Build Ukraine.
Final Agreement Less Exploitative Than Initial Proposals
Ukrainian officials characterise the signed version as more favorable than previous drafts.
Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, who signed the deal for Ukraine, wrote on Facebook: “We have formed a version of the agreement that provides mutually beneficial conditions for both countries.”
The agreement stipulates that Ukraine will retain "full ownership of the resources" and determine what can be extracted and where.
The deal covers minerals, including rare earth elements, oil and natural gas, but excludes resources already generating revenue for Ukraine.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal called the agreement “good, equal and beneficial” for both sides.
Kyiv maintains "full control over subsoil, infrastructure, and natural resources."
The deal creates an investment fund and grants the United States special access to new projects developing Ukraine’s natural resources.
Ukraine will contribute 50 percent of revenues from new resource licenses to the fund.
No profits will be taken from the fund for the first 10 years, Svyrydenko stated. This falls squarely within standard industry expectations for developing mineral resources.
Security Guarantees Missing From Final Agreement
The agreement notably lacks security guarantees that Ukraine has long requested. These guarantees would help deter future Russian war effort after a ceasefire.
While not providing explicit security guarantees, the deal affirms a "long-term strategic alignment" between the two sides. It pledges American "support for Ukraine's security, prosperity, reconstruction, and integration into global economic frameworks."
Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera: “It’s not a security guarantee. This does not say – and Trump would never offer – to send US troops to defend Ukraine.”
Lieven noted that while not a formal guarantee, the deal ensures American interest in Ukraine.
“It certainly ought to be a deterrent to future Russian aggression, because it would mean that if the Russians did launch a new war, the U.S. would certainly impose severe sanctions and would aid Ukraine militarily.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, declared in a statement: "This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term."
The deal comes at a critical moment as the U.S. threatened to step away from its mediation efforts. Ukrainians view the deal as a way to keep their biggest ally engaged in the conflict.
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