President Emmanuel Macron’s plan for France to formally recognise a Palestine as a state is significant. The decision steers Paris down a road less travelled by major Western powers. The decision will be judged not by speeches, but by the real-world outcomes involving a revived peace process.
A Long History of Shifting Ties
France has long walked a fine line in the Middle East.
Paris was among the first Western countries to build a strong bond with Israel after its founding. In the early 1950s, the two countries maintained close political and military ties. France was even Israel’s main weapons supplier.
That warmth cooled after the 1967 war.
At the time, Charles de Gaulle’s government stopped arms sales to the region. Since then, French leaders have tried to balance a firm friendship with Israel and backing for a Palestinian state. This new step is not out of the blue.
For years, France has voiced support for a two-state framework. It voted to give Palestine observer status at the United Nations in 2012. The change in status was described as a de facto recognition at the time. Still, this planned full recognition is a much bigger leap.
The choice puts Paris at odds with some of its closest allies namely the U.S. and Germany yet two of it's other closest allies, Britain and Canada, are aligned. In doing so, three G7 members are likely to recognise statehood come September.
Setting a New Course for Europe
President Macron’s declaration sets France apart from its peers. Within the Group of Seven, an informal bloc of major industrialised economies, this is a pioneering step. France would become the first of these wealthy nations to do recognise Palestinian statehood ahead of London and Ottawa.
However, other members, including the United States, Germany, Italy, and Japan, are holding fire.
They take the position that their own recognition should follow direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. France is now betting that recognition can help spur progress, not just be the end goal.
This could lead other European countries to follow suit.
Spain and Ireland were the first flurry of EU member states to kick start the two-state paradigm earlier last year. More may now feel encouraged to do the same. This builds a slow but growing belief within Europe. The old way of doing things has not worked.
With peace talks frozen for more than a decade and conditions worsening, there is a feeling that something new must happen or least tried.
Concerns Home and Abroad
Not everyone sees this as a positive development.
The United States government has called the decision “reckless“. American officials worry it could setback peace efforts. From this viewpoint, recognising Palestine now gives up a tool of diplomacy without gaining anything. Recognition, they feel, should be tied to a final agreement.
The Israeli government feels even more strongly. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated the choice “rewards terror”. Israeli officials worry that a Palestinian state born this way would be a danger.
Netanyahu believes it emboldens groups that use force instead of negotiation. This view holds that any such recognition must come through direct talks.
At home, France has Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim populations. Events in the Middle East often spill over into tensions there, a difficulty French leaders are always aware of.
A Calculated Bet on a Better Future
From Paris, the perspective is different.
The French government seems to believe that waiting for a final settlement has become a dead end. The Oslo Accords, signed in the 1990s, were meant to lead to a Palestinian state within five years. That process, which led to the creation of the Palestinian Authority, ultimately ran aground amid political changes and violence.
Almost thirty years later, that objective seems further away than ever. By acting now, France is trying to break the logjam. The idea is to give the Palestinian Authority, the body born from those accords, greater standing on the world stage and break a cycle of donor dependency.
Therefore, recognition strengthens those who favour diplomacy and state-building.
The Need for Practical Follow-Through
The true measure will be what comes next.
Official statements are one thing. Genuine change is another. For this announcement to have weight, it must be followed by concrete actions. These actions should focus on helping to build the foundations of a working state.
The World Bank has previously noted that the Palestinian Authority was well-positioned but donor-dependent. This means supporting private-sector growth in the Palestinian economy. It involves helping to create functional institutions that can serve people.
Pressure is required on both parties to resume dialogue and break a cycle of polarisation between either side after Oslo.
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