Four masked gunmen stormed a villa in Zintan on Tuesday evening, executing Libya’s last connection to the old order: Gaddafi.
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi died from gunshots at his house and concluded a political career built on the ghost of his father.
The date of the hit is hard to miss because it happened only days after the groups from the east and west met in Paris to talk about a united country. Elections are coming in mid-April and the man who could have made the process messy is gone.
Haftar’s Rival Problem Fixed
The 53-year-old son of Muammar Gaddafi was a leader of ghosts who held onto power by being a symbol for the people who missed the old ways.
The authority made him a threat to the current rulers who divide the country between Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in the east and Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh in the west.
Claudia Gazzini from the International Crisis Group notes that he had the hearts of the people who looked at the past to find a way forward.
The situation was a trouble for Haftar because the groups were often the same people. The Gaddafi family saw Haftar as a man who betrayed them long ago and the history made them rivals for the same crowd.
Sadeq Institute’s Anas El Gomati says the winner is Haftar because Saif offered another kind of strongman appeal. The eastern commander now has one less hurdle to jump to reach total control.
Elections Without the Wildcard
The group in charge of the vote put out word about how the April election will work.
Once Saif al-Islam signed up to run in 2021 the name was enough to break the whole system. Emadeddin Badi says the death turns a political roadblock into a powerful memory. No one knows if he could have won but his being there would have ruined the balance between the big camps.
Power today is a study in stalemate where the Tripoli government holds about a third of the north and the eastern army has the rest.
Neither side is strong enough to win by force and both sides are strong enough to stop a fix from working.
The Paris Arrangement
Massad Boulos verified that there was a meeting at the Élysée Palace that brought the rival sides to the same table where Ibrahim Dbeibeh met with Saddam Haftar.
The leaders discussed a single government and people watching the region view the move as a way to start a new family dynasty in the east.
Paris and Washington backing the talks hints that outside powers are betting on a quiet country. The Tripoli side gets help from Turkey and Qatar and the eastern group gets help from Russia. Every deal must find a way to quiet the competing interests.
Nostalgia’s Last Defender Gone
The people who liked Saif al-Islam wanted the old safety that came with oil money. The son spent years in a jail in Zintan where over time the jailers became his guards.
In the 2011 riots he cautioned that the country would see years of blood and the forecast has lasted fifteen years. The land is still split between rival groups that struggle to provide for the people.
Power Sharing or Power Grab
Two outcomes arise from the killing and the first is a hard-won deal now that a source of friction is gone.
Voting happens in April and a new government begins the work of rebuilding. The second outcome is more likely. Gazzini believed the hit would be a small ripple because the basic deadlock remains and the people who liked the old regime have joined new groups and the era of the name is over.
Haftar is the primary winner because his rival for the old-school vote is gone and elections may proceed with one less trouble.
If the handshake lasts or if the eastern commander pushes for more control is the big question. Years of selfishness need to be beaten and the adversaries have long prioritised their own safety first.
The gunmen erased the security footage to hide their work and prosecutors are looking into the crime.
The history of political violence suggests little will come of it. The names of the shooters matter less than the open road they left behind as the April vote is coming and the ghost of the old days is out of the room. The event may be the salvation of the country or only another missed opportunity.
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