Recent talks in Istanbul between the E3 nations of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom and Iran offer a small glimmer of hope.
Yet, for this diplomatic opportunity to bear fruit, European powers must choose a different path than Washington. They need to engage with Tehran with something more than just the looming threat of sanctions.
Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities persist, even after recent military actions, which makes a new approach necessary.
A Backdrop of Bombs and Brinkmanship
Discussions in Istanbul were the first formal meeting since a 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel in June. This conflict included American airstrikes on Iranian nuclear-linked sites. The main point of contention is the possible reimposition of international sanctions.
These sanctions were lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). That agreement limited Iran’s uranium enrichment in return for relief from punishing economic measures. The United States unilaterally left this deal in 2018 under its former president.
Now, the E3 are threatening to use a “snapback mechanism“. This clause in the 2015 deal allows for the automatic return of United Nations sanctions if Iran breaks the agreement’s terms. The deadline for this action is fast approaching yet the situation is delicate.
Why Threats Alone Fall Short
Despite the American “Operation Midnight Hammer” in June, Iran’s nuclear programme was not destroyed.
A U.S. intelligence assessment suggested the strikes only set back the programme by a few months. Furthermore, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in May that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity had grown to over 400 kilograms. This is very close to weapons-grade level.
Iran’s commitment to its enrichment activities, which it deems a national right, remains firm. These facts show that a policy built on coercion is faulty. It has not stopped Iran’s nuclear advancements.
On the other hand, Iran has shown it is open to talking. The Istanbul meeting itself is evidence of this. Iranian officials described the talks as “serious, frank and detailed”. They have also said they are ready to restart technical discussions with the IAEA.
This readiness to sit down and talk presents a clear opening. Europe could achieve a diplomatic win if it offers something substantial. A new way forward must go beyond the tired script of sanctions threats. The E3 have floated the idea of a temporary delay in triggering the snapback mechanism. This is on condition that Tehran re-engages diplomatically and cooperates fully with the IAEA.
This is a step in the right direction.
The Echo Chamber of Maximum Pressure
Of course, some will say that Iran is untrustworthy. They believe that only unrelenting pressure can stop Tehran from building a nuclear weapon. They point to Iran’s expanding enriched uranium stockpile as proof of its malign intentions. From this viewpoint, any offer of talks without the credible threat of force and crippling sanctions is a sign of weakness.
It would be an open invitation for Iran to cheat and to get closer to a bomb. They feel that keeping all options on the table is the only language Tehran understands.
A difficult choice awaits.
A Better Way Forward
That way of thinking has been tried, and it has not delivered. The “maximum pressure” campaign has not halted Iran’s nuclear progress. If anything, it has quickened it. Since the U.S. left the JCPOA, Iran has been increasingly breaching the deal’s restrictions. It is a textbook case of reaping what you sow.
A European strategy grounded in mutual respect and tangible economic prospects stands a much better chance of success. Iran has made it clear that rebuilding trust is vital. The country’s officials state they have “absolutely no trust in the United States”. A separate European approach could begin to mend that broken faith.
Specifically, the E3 should formally propose a six-month suspension of the snapback mechanism. In return, Iran should allow IAEA inspectors back into the country and answer all outstanding questions about its nuclear activities. This would create the breathing room needed for genuine negotiations to take place.
It would show that Europe is serious about diplomacy, not just about following America’s lead.
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