The northeastern Colombian region of Catatumbo has erupted into unprecedented violence. Over four days, at least 80 people have been killed, with more than 32,000 were displaced as the National Liberation Army, or ELN, wages a brutal campaign to control drug trafficking territories.
Peace Agenda Collapses Amid Brutal Conflict
President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” agenda lies in tatters. The ELN’s recent attacks, including murders of peace accord signatories and community leaders, forced Petro to suspend negotiations. “The ELN chose war, and war is what it’s going to get,” Petro declared on social media.
The violence has decimated vulnerable populations. Iris Marín, Colombia’s ombudsperson, described the situation as “extremely grave”, with reports of targeted killings, forced displacements, and systematic attacks on civilians.
The human cost becomes starkly evident. Entire communities have been uprooted, with families fleeing their homes with nothing more than the clothes on their backs. Schools stand empty. Markets have fallen silent. The region’s social fabric is unravelling at breakneck speed.
Venezuela’s Alleged Proxy War
Venezuela’s re-elected President Nicolás Maduro is accused of weaponising the conflict. He deployed over 2,000 troops to the border, ostensibly for humanitarian purposes. However, critics argue this is a calculated move to establish territorial control and protect drug trafficking routes.
The troops’ positioning suggests a deeper strategy. By flooding the border region with military personnel, Maduro creates a buffer zone that potentially shields drug trafficking networks from Colombian government intervention.
U.S. Intervention Becomes Possible
The geopolitical stakes have risen dramatically. Donald Trump’s recent designation of drug cartels as terrorist groups and historical U.S. Department of Justice charges against Maduro for narco-terrorism suggest potential military intervention could be on the cards.
In 2019, the ELN has warned it would “fight” any U.S. troops entering Venezuela, further complicating an already volatile situation.
Conflict Spreads Beyond Border Regions
The conflict is not limited to Catatumbo. In the Guaviare region, at least 20 people were killed in additional drug trafficking battles. The systematic breakdown of the 2016 peace accord created a power vacuum where armed groups ruthlessly compete for territorial control.
This expansion reveals the conflict’s true nature: not an isolated skirmish, but a widespread destabilisation of Colombia’s delicate social order. Armed groups see opportunity in the government’s weakened position, exploiting every fracture in the peace process.
Economic Life Grinds to Halt
Local commerce has ground to a halt. In Tibú, businesses shuttered in protest and fear. The humanitarian crisis is overwhelming local infrastructure, with hospitals and refugee centers struggling to cope with the massive population displacement.
Small traders have lost everything. Farmers cannot tend their lands. The economic ripple effects will likely persist long after the immediate violence subsides, creating a generational wound in the region’s economic landscape.
The ongoing crisis represents more than a localized conflict. It is a complex theatre of geopolitical maneuvering, drug trafficking, and failed peace processes. Foreign entanglement and deepening sociopolitical divisions threaten to transform Colombia’s fragile peace into a potential civil disaster.
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