Friedrich Merz told reporters in Tokyo last week of Germany’s interest in joining the Global Combat Air Programme, the fighter project led by Japan, Britain and Italy. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, at the joint press conference, spoke only of defence industry cooperation in areas where each side’s capabilities complement the other.
Berlin needs a fighter partner after the Franco-German Future Combat Air System collapsed in June. Japan, Britain and Italy launched their programme in 2022. Tokyo has acknowledged German participation could delay the project and jeopardise a deployment plan for 2035.
Japan’s courteous reluctance points to a practical division of labour between the two capitals. Commerce thrives on complementary strengths, and fighter jets obey a timetable Tokyo refuses to renegotiate.
The bilateral relationship seems warm in trade and business but guarded in security.
Commerce Finds Open Doors in Tokyo
Commerce, the warmer half of the bargain, deserves attention first. Merz and Takaichi agreed last week to broaden cooperation on economic security and advanced technology, and their joint statement rejects practices that cause overcapacity and market distortion.
Germany plans to invest two billion euros in artificial intelligence and high technology by 2029, and Japan targets around 18 billion euros of private investment in similar fields by 2040.
The leaders also pledged wider sources of rare earths and greater interchangeability of those materials in car manufacturing. They endorsed a new high-level dialogue on artificial intelligence and agreed to coordinate on an artificial intelligence summit in Japan.
At the business summit, Merz urged more investment, technological cooperation and rules-based trade. He also invited Japan to join Hannover Messe 2028 as a partner country. Takaichi said she would be pleased to accept.
German founders have read the weather accurately. Nine startups backed by Berlin’s federal government showcased their work at SusHi Tech Tokyo in April, and Merz visited Kyoto Fusioneering, a fusion venture that works with Siemens Energy.
Japanese partners gain too. Fusion, hydrogen and artificial intelligence projects need German engineering and capital, and each signed deal lowers the temperature of any disagreement over fighters.
Why Fighter Jets Obey Other Rules
Fighter jets, however, answer to engineering schedules and workshare contracts – no joint declaration can rewrite those. Japan, Britain and Italy have already divided design and manufacturing through their joint venture, Edgewing.
Leonardo’s chief executive has called Germany a strong partner and concedes talks would be intense. Britain’s prime minister, Andy Burnham, told a Berlin press conference last month of “our openness to Germany joining GCAP”. London can afford such courtesy, since Tokyo appears to hold the harder reservations.
Japan needs a successor to the ageing Mitsubishi F-2 by the mid-2030s, which gives Tokyo ample reason to treat a latecomer’s industrial demands with suspicion.
Japan has reportedly sought an answer by early next year, and Merz has cautioned Berlin may need longer. Airbus chief Guillaume Faury reportedly says Berlin is sounding out other governments as well.
The two defence ministers are due to meet soon, according to Merz, so the haggling over workshare will retreat into a smaller room. German funds and engineers could ease budget worries in London and Rome, which gives Berlin a genuine bargaining chip.
Each month of German hesitation tightens an industrial timetable, and Tokyo owes its pilots a working aircraft before it owes Berlin a seat.
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