Tribal fighters deployed around the vital PetroMasila oil installations, a provocative move by Sheikh Amr bin Habrish and his Hadramout Tribes Confederacy (HTC) that sent shockwaves through the country’s fragile political landscape.
The reaction to the deployment was swift and violent. Within days, forces loyal to the Southern Transitional Council (STC) seized control of Seiyun, battling at the presidential palace in one of the valley’s most important cities.
This is not merely a local skirmish but a battle for the economic lifeline of the nation. Hadramout accounts for 39 percent of Yemen’s total oil production, making control over the governorate a prize that no faction is willing to surrender.
As rival gunmen surround oil facilities and compete for territory, the crisis reveals the deep fractures preventing any form of unified governance in Yemen.
Irreconcilable Visions: Autonomy vs. Independence
The conflict is driven by two fundamentally different views of the future.
On one side, the HTC argues that local self-rule is the only way to end decades of marginalisation. For months, they have been halting crude oil supplies to Aden to pressure the central government.
The tribal leadership has formalised these ambitions into concrete political demands.
In April 2025, tribal gatherings demanded autonomous governance as a basic right, with Bin Habrish forming the Hadramout Protection Forces (HPF) to defend local wealth from what he calls external exploitation.
During a speech in Mukalla in March 2025, he stated his desire for a Hadramout free from outside conflicts, claiming Riyadh supported their bid for services funded by their own resources.
The STC pursues a completely different path. They called for a two-state solution to the civil war in September 2025, aiming to restore the independent South Yemen that existed before 1990.
For the STC, Hadramout is non-negotiable because there is no viable southern state without its vast oil reserves.
To support this claim, STC President Aidrous al-Zubaidi frequently emphasises the role of the Hadrami Elite Forces (HEF) in liberating Mukalla from militants in 2016 to legitimise their presence.
Their commanders have accused the tribal alliance of serving foreign agendas, insisting that STC documents guarantee federal rights and resource benefits to all governorates within a southern state.
The View from the North: Ansar Allah Wins by Default
While the south fractures, Ansar Allah watches from Sanaa. Controlling the capital and the northwest, the Houthi group remains absent from this eastern struggle but benefits immensely from it.
Every bullet fired between the HTC and STC is one less resource available to challenge Ansar Allah’s control over Yemen’s most populous regions.
The group has focused its energy elsewhere, having struggled to make territorial gains against southern forces since late 2023.
Ansar Allah appears content to see their opponents weaken each other while they avoid direct involvement in the current eastern infighting.
Instead of engaging in domestic battles, they have positioned themselves as a regional player through attacks on Red Sea shipping and strikes against Israeli targets.
This strategy allows them to consolidate authority at home while their rivals exhaust themselves in the east.
A Band-Aid on a Broken Nation
Saudi mediation managed to produce an agreement on December 3, to stop the immediate fighting. The deal separates the forces, pulling HTC fighters back from oil perimeters and STC elite forces away from the city.
Yet, this is merely a pause in the hostilities rather than a solution. The core issue remains unsolvable because the HTC’s demand for autonomy is essentially incompatible with the STC’s dream of a unified southern state.
This fractured reality reduces any chance of a unified government establishing a monopoly on force and meaningfully engaging at the global stage.
Ultimately, the crisis in Hadramout is a microcosm of the national tragedy where armed groups contest the future while the local population endures power cuts and service collapses with no end in sight.
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