Every day, Brussels gets thousands of letters from around the world. Most end up in filing cabinets and get forgotten. Yet when Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi sent a four-page warning to Belgium about stopping gas exports, European officials suddenly paid close attention.
The numbers tell the story. Qatar supplies 12% of Europe’s liquefied natural gas imports, which gives the Gulf state real power over European energy supplies. The fight comes down to Brussels’ new Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which could hit companies with fines worth 5% of their worldwide earnings.
For QatarEnergy, that means billions of dollars at risk.
Good Ideas and Hard Reality
After cutting off Russian gas supplies, European leaders learned something uncomfortable about being dependent on others. Europe switched to American and Qatari gas to fill the gap, but that move created new problems.
Qatar now finds itself in a pretty good spot. With this new leverage in hand, Doha holds real sway over European energy markets. The country can easily send its gas elsewhere, like China, which took 25% of Qatari gas in early 2024, and India, which bought 17%.
Asian buyers don’t ask too many questions about how business gets done. Meanwhile, as new plants come online in 2025, American gas will flood world markets. America wins no matter what happens since European dependence on American gas helps both business and politics.
Brussels Pushes Too Hard
Going far beyond just gas to include fertilisers, chemicals, and investments, al-Kaabi’s threat covers Qatar’s whole relationship with Europe. The minister called the penalties “too much” when they hit foreign companies based on their worldwide earnings, even if they barely operate in Europe.
European officials got their maths wrong about who needs whom more. Instead of treating Gulf partners like equals, Brussels acts like Qatar should follow European rules just because Europe says so. This approach backfires when dealing with countries that have other places to sell their stuff.
Qatar isn't standing still either. By 2027, the country will boost its gas production by 64%. European buyers now have to compete with Asian customers who don't care about Brussels' rulebook.
The Other Side Gets It Wrong
Some people will say Europe should stick to its values no matter what it costs. They think giving in on environmental and human rights standards makes Europe look weak. Trade deals, they argue, should reflect what’s right and wrong.
Yet here’s the problem with that thinking. Whilst depending completely on Qatar’s gas, European leaders can’t lecture Qatar about how to run its own country. The new rules try to force European standards on other sovereign nations. This old-school colonial thinking assumes Europe knows better than everyone else.
Instead of demands from Brussels, real partnerships need mutual respect. Qatar makes fair points about penalty rules that treat foreign companies worse than European ones. Talking works better than threats.
Working Together
Rather than risk losing gas supplies through stubborn rule-making, European leaders should work out deals that work for everyone. More than ten long-term gas contracts run out by 2025, which gives Qatar real bargaining power when it comes time to renew them.
European officials need to face facts about how regulation actually works. Instead of threatening big fines, getting companies to go along willingly works much better. Penalties that push suppliers away achieve nothing except higher energy bills for Europeans and less influence over how business gets done.
Smart policy would bring Qatari companies into writing reasonable rules everyone can live with. Carrots work better than sticks when you’re dealing with countries that have real choices.
Before Qatar’s production growth hits 126 million tonnes per year by 2027, European officials should book flights to Doha for serious talks. Once that gas starts flowing mainly to Asia, getting it back to European markets becomes much harder.
European policymakers have a simple choice ahead of them: change the rules to keep energy partnerships going or watch suppliers head east whilst European consumers pay more for moral posturing that doesn’t actually change much.
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Read also:
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Drill Baby Drill: U.S. Backs TotalEnergies
Healthy Competition: A New Challenger to the Gulf’s Aviation Titans
