In September 2023, Storm Daniel turned parts of Greece and eastern Libya into disaster zones. In Derna, two ageing dams collapsed after extraordinary rain, sending water through a city built along a dry riverbed and killing thousands.
One year later, extreme rainfall hit eastern Spain. The DANA event over Valencia in October 2024 brought downpours that killed more than 200 people and cut water and electricity to hundreds of thousands.
This December, flash floods in the Moroccan coastal city of Safi killed at least 37 people after barely an hour of intense rain. Streets turned to rivers, homes were swept through, and schools closed for days.
Three events, three different countries, but one shared basin and a similar pattern. Exceptional storms meet vulnerable places and turn into catastrophe.
A Warmer, Smaller Sea
Medicanes are tropical-like cyclones that form over the Mediterranean under special conditions. They have a warm core, strong convection and heavy rain, even if they are smaller than Atlantic hurricanes.
Recent research suggests these storms may become less frequent but more intense as the sea heats. The Mediterranean has been warming faster than the global ocean average since the 1980s, with marine heatwaves raising surface temperatures by up to six degrees above normal in summer 2024.
Attribution studies now link that extra heat directly to heavier rainfall. Analyses of Storm Daniel and the Valencia DANA find that human-driven warming significantly boosted the amount of water these systems carried and released.
Medicanes and related cyclones are not new, but the background conditions have changed. The sea now provides more fuel, so storms that do form hit harder.
Concrete on the Floodplain
Storms alone do not explain the scale of recent damage. Towns and cities around the Mediterranean have spent decades expanding into river deltas, floodplains and dry valleys, often for tourism or rapid urban growth.
In Derna, experts had warned for years about the risk posed by poorly maintained dams above a densely built valley. Buildings, roads and walls channelled water directly through the city centre after the structures failed.
Something similar happened in Valencia and Safi. Drainage networks could not cope with the speed of rainfall. Pavement and asphalt left little soil to absorb water. Cars, shopfronts and ground-floor homes stood in the way of the flow.
In this sense, human activity increases flood likelihood not only through emissions but also through land use. Every new road through a riverbed and every unauthorised house in a dry channel raises the chance that a rare storm becomes a lethal one.
Unequal Protection Around a Shared Sea
The Mediterranean links southern Europe with North Africa and parts of the Middle East. The same sea-surface conditions can produce storms that affect Greece, Libya, Spain and Morocco within days of one another.
Protection, however, is uneven. Some countries have detailed flood maps, warning systems and insurance schemes. Others still lack basic drainage, especially in informal settlements and crowded coastal belts.
North African states face their own pressures. Years of drought in Morocco left reservoirs low, so authorities welcomed heavy rain even as it produced deadly floods. In Libya, divided institutions and limited investment left critical infrastructure vulnerable long before Storm Daniel arrived.
The science of attribution now connects specific events to global warming more directly, yet the capacity to respond remains driven by local politics and budgets. The entire basin shares the physics of warmer water but not the same level of preparation.
Everyday Choices that Raise the Risk
Beyond large infrastructure, small daily choices also matter. Illegal building in flood-prone zones continues in many countries, encouraged by weak enforcement or short-term profit. Concrete replaces orchards and wetlands that once slowed runoff.
Agricultural practices can add to the problem. Overgrazing and deforestation on hillsides leave soil loose and easily washed away. Irrigation and groundwater extraction change river flows, sometimes weakening natural buffers before storms.
Tourism pressures add another layer. Coastal hotels, roads and marinas often stand on sites where dunes or salt marshes used to absorb storm surges. Hard surfaces and steep drops replace gradual transitions.
None of these activities cause a storm by themselves. Taken together, they decide how much damage the next extreme event can do.
Preparation Starts Early
Preparation is often discussed as a matter of warning sirens and emergency drills. These are vital, but they act late in the chain. Real protection starts much earlier, with decisions about land use and restoration.
Researchers and agencies around the Mediterranean argue for more nature-based defences. Restoring wetlands, river meanders and dunes can store excess water and reduce the force of floods, whilst also cooling cities and protecting biodiversity.
Early-warning systems and public education remain essential for the hours before a storm. The experience of Greece and Italy shows that timely alerts can cut casualties even when property damage remains high.
For ordinary residents, preparation may mean checking if homes sit in mapped flood zones, supporting local rules against building on riverbeds, and taking warnings seriously.
Medicanes and extreme rain events will continue to cross this enclosed sea. They are part of a changing physical reality. People across the region still control how much exposed, concrete shoreline they add and how much room they give water to move safely.
Keep up with Daily Euro Times for more updates.
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